Airborne allergenic fungal spores and meteorological factors in Greece: Forecasting possibilities

Damialis, Athanasios; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

doi:10.1080/00173130600601005

Cited by 32 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Lyon et al (1984; in Manhattan, KA), using multiple regression analysis, also noted that the maximum and minimum temperatures are significantly correlated with concentrations of Alternaria. Using autoregressive predictive models , Damialis and Gioulekas (2006) observed that Alternaria spores were strongly related to air temperature in Thessaloniki (Greece). The interaction effects of rainfall and wind were also considered necessary for long-term (annual) predictions of airborne fungal concentrations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…As the existing predictive models are sometimes poor forecasters (Hjelmroos 1993;Angulo-Romero et al 1999;Mitakakis et al 2001;Troutt and Levetin 2001;Stennett and Beggs 2004;Damialis and Gioulekas 2006), there is increasing interest in the development of statistical models of high predictive power for atmospheric levels of airborne fungal spores that will allow allergic individuals to take preventative action. For the above reasons, here, for the first time, we develop a model to forecast Alternaria spore levels in Poland.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

Grinn‐Gofroń

Strzelczak

2008

Int J Biometeorol

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Alternaria is an airborne fungal spore type known to trigger respiratory allergy symptoms in sensitive patients. Aiming to reduce the risk for allergic individuals, we constructed predictive models for the fungal spore circulation in Szczecin, Poland. Monthly forecasting models were developed for the airborne spore concentrations of Alternaria, which is one of the most abundant fungal taxa in the area. Aerobiological sampling was conducted over 2004--2007, using a Lanzoni trap. Simultaneously, the following meteorological parameters were recorded: daily level of precipitation; maximum and average wind speed; relative humidity; and maximum, minimum, average, and dew point temperature. The original factors as well as with lags (up to 3 days) were used as the explaining variables. Due to non-linearity and non-normality of the data set, the modelling technique applied was the artificial neural network (ANN) method. The final model was a split model with classification (spore presence or absence) followed by regression for spore seasons and logx+1 transformed Alternaria spore concentration. All variables except maximum wind speed and precipitation were important factors in the overall classification model. In the regression model for spore seasons, close relationships were noted between Alternaria spore concentration and average and maximum temperature (on the same day and 3 days previously), humidity (with lag 1) and maximum wind speed 2 days previously. The most important variable was humidity recorded on the same day. Our study illustrates a novel approach to modelling of time series with short spore seasons, and indicates that the ANN method provides the possibility of forecasting Alternaria spore concentration with high accuracy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

Grinn‐Gofroń

Strzelczak

2008

Int J Biometeorol

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“…The correlation between weather and spore concentration has been recognised by many authors in different parts of the world (Bagni et al 1977;Burch and Levetin 2002;Damialis and Gioulekas 2006;Katial et al 1997;Mitakakis et al 1997Mitakakis et al , 2001Ricci et al 1995;Rutherford et al 1997;Stennett and Beggs 2004;Troutt and Levetin 2001). Atmospheric Alternaria spores, temperature and humidity are the factors that most closely correlate with the occurrence of this disease.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

et al. 2010

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Alternaria solani Soraeur produces early blight in Solanum tuberosum L., leading to significant agricultural losses. The current study was carried out on the extensive potato crop situated in north-western of Spain during 2007, 2008 and 2009. In this area potato crops are the most important source of income. In this work we used a Hirst-type volumetric spore-trap for the aerobiological monitoring of Alternaria spores. The highest spore concentrations were recorded during the 2009 cycle (10,555 spores), and the lowest concentrations were recorded during the 2008 cycle (5,471 spores). Over the 3 years of study, the highest concentrations were registered during the last stage of the crop. The aim of the study was to observe the influence of meteorological factors on the concentration of Alternaria spores, which can lead to serious infection and early blight. Prediction of the stages during which a crop is particularly vulnerable to infection allows for adjustment of the application of fungicide and is of environmental and agricultural importance. For this reason, we tested three models (P-Days, DD and IWP) to predict the first treatment and decrease the negative effect that these spores have on potato crops. The parameter that showed the most significant correlation with spore concentrations was minimum temperature. We used ARIMA (autoregressive integrated model of running mean) time-series models to determine the forecast. We considered weather data as predictor variables and the concentration of spores on the previous day as the fixed variable.

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“…The selection was based on the following criteria: (i) on fungal spore atmospheric abundance: particularly Alternaria and Cladosporium species have been frequently reported as the most abundantly represented worldwide and specifically in the Mediterranean climate study area (Damialis and Gioulekas 2006); (ii) on fungal spore allergenic properties: spores from all studied species are well documented as the most allergenic worldwide and particularly from Alternaria, Aspergillus and Cladosporium (e.g. Gioulekas et al 2004), being responsible for the most difficult and severe cases of asthma which sometimes lead to mortality (Zukiewicz-Sobczak 2013); (iii) on fungal phytopathogenic properties: all selected species, i.e.…”

Section: Fungal Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

et al. 2014

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Very little is known about the impact of climate change on fungi and especially on spore production. Fungal spores can be allergenic, thus being important for human health. The aim of this study was to investigate how climate change influences the responsive ability of fungi by simulating differing environmental regimes. Fungal species with high spore allergenic potential and atmospheric abundance were grown and experimentally examined under a variety of temperatures and different nutrient availability. Each represented the average decadal air temperature of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in the UK, along with an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario for 2100. All tests were run on six fungal species: Alternaria alternata, Aspergillus niger, Botrytis cinerea, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium oxysporum and Epicoccum purpurascens. Mycelium growth rate and spore production were examined on each single species and competitive capacity among species combinations in pairs. All fungal species grew faster at higher temperatures, and this was more pronounced for the temperature projection in 2100. Most species grew faster when there was lower nutrient availability. Exceptions were the species with the highest growth rate (E. purpurascens) and with the highest competition capacity (A. alternata). Most species (except for E. purpurascens) produced more spores in the richer nutrient medium but fewer as temperature increased. C. cladosporioides was an exception, exponentially increasing its spore production in the temperature of the 2100 scenario. Regarding competitive capacity, no species displayed any significant alterations within the environmental range checked. It is suggested that in future climates, fungi will display dramatic growth responses, with faster mycelium growth and lower spore production, with questions risen on relevant allergen potential.

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Airborne allergenic fungal spores and meteorological factors in Greece: Forecasting possibilities

Cited by 32 publications

References 26 publications

Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

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