Airborne nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea: Past trends, source allocation and future projections

Gauss, Michael; Bartnicki, Jerzy; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Nyíri, Á.; Klein, Heiko; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118377

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Since the 1980s, the total nitrogen deposition on the Baltic Sea has decreased substantially due to an overall reduction in European emissions, but emission and deposition reductions have stalled since the mid-2000s (Colette et al, 2015;Gauss et al, 2021). Atmospheric phosphorus deposition remains highly uncertain in amount and trends (HELCOM, 2015;Kanakidou et al, 2018;Ruoho-Airola et al, 2012).…”

Section: 21(6) Air Pollution Air Quality and Atmospheric Nutrient Dep...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since there are no statistically significant trends in annual river discharge (Sect. 3.2.2(1)), these reductions are attributed to socioeconomic development, including the expansion of the wastewater treatment and the reduction in atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Gauss et al, 2021) over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin and not to climate-related effects (HELCOM, 2018a; Svendsen and Gustafsson, 2020). As an example, the coastal point sources of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) decreased 3-and 10-fold, respectively, compared to the 1990s (Savchuk et al, 2012) and today contribute fewer nutrients to the Baltic Sea than they did in 1900 (Savchuk et al, 2008;Kuliński et al, 2021).…”

Section: 22(2) Land Nutrient Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

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Section: 21(6) Air Pollution Air Quality and Atmospheric Nutrient Dep...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 22(2) Land Nutrient Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the 1980s, the total nitrogen deposition on the Baltic Sea has decreased substantially, due to an overall reduction of European emissions, but emission and deposition reductions have stalled since the mid-2000s (Colette et al, 2015;Gauss et al, 2021). Atmospheric phosphorus deposition remains highly uncertain in amount and trends (HELCOM, 2015;Kanakidou et al, 2018;Ruoho-Airola et al, 2012).…”

Section: Air Pollution Air Quality and Atmospheric Nutrient Depositionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…11, Table 5). Since there are no statistically significant trends in annual river discharge (Section 3.2.2.1), these reductions are attributed to socio-economic development, including expansion of the wastewater treatment and reduction of atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Gauss et al, 2021) over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin, and not to climate related effects (HELCOM, 2018a;Svendsen and Gustafsson, 2020). As an example, the coastal point sources of TN and TP decreased three-and ten-fold, respectively, comparing to the 1990s (Savchuk et al, 2012) and today contribute to the Baltic Sea less nutrients than they did in 1900 (Savchuk et al, 2008;Kuliński et al, 2021).…”

Section: Land Nutrient Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

show abstract

“…However, most of Europe including the Baltic Sea region did not exceed the CLs for acidification (EEA, 2019a). Since the 1980s, the total nitrogen deposition on the Baltic Sea has decreased substantially, due to an overall reduction of European emissions, but emission and deposition reductions have stalled since the mid-2000s (Colette et al, 2015;Gauss et al, 2021). Atmospheric phosphorus deposition remains highly uncertain in amount and trends (HELCOM, 2015;Kanakidou et al, 2018;Ruoho-Airola et al, 2012).…”

Section: Air Pollution Air Quality and Atmospheric Nutrient Depositionmentioning

Airborne nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea: Past trends, source allocation and future projections

Cited by 10 publications

References 37 publications

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

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