AirClim: an efficient tool for climate evaluation of aircraft technology

Grewe, Volker; Stenke, Andrea

doi:10.5194/acp-8-4621-2008

Cited by 116 publications

(140 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Also, to correct for the transient response, i.e. that the CH 4 concentration may not be in steady state with the OH change during the simulation year, we have applied factors based on the method described in Grewe and Stenke (2008). For the A1B scenario in 2025/2050, these factors are 0.77/0.74 for AIR, 0.85/0.88 for SHIP, and 1.07/1.77 for ROAD.…”

Section: Radiative Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

et al. 2012

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Abstract. The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5 % to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario.As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O 3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O 3 occurs near 80 • N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O 3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O 3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000.Radiative forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of −0.44 ± 13 mW m −2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of −32 ± 9.3 (B1) or −32 ± 18 mW m −2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O 3 , CH 4 and CH 4 -induced O 3 . This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from −19 ± 5.3 mW m −2 in 2000 to −31 ± 4.8 (B1) or −40 ± 9 mW m −2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O 3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 12 ± 8.5 mW m −2 in 2000 to a slightly negative net RF of −3.1 ± 2.2 (B1) or −3.1 ± 3.4 (A1B) mW m −2 in the middle of this century. The negative net RF from ROAD is temporary and induced by the strong decline in ROAD emissions prior to 2050, which only affects the methane cooling term due to the longer lifetime of CH 4 compared to O 3 . The O 3 RF from AIR in 2050 is Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Ø. Hodnebrog et al.: Future impact of traffic emissionsstrongly dependent on scenario and ranges from 19 ± 6.8 (B1 ACARE) to 61 ± 14 mW m −2 (A1B). There is also a considerable span in the net RF from AIR in 2050, ranging from -0.54 ± 4.6 (B1 ACARE) to 12 ± 11 (A1B) mW m −2 compared to 6.6 ± 2.2 mW m −2 in 2000.

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Section: Radiative Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

et al. 2012

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“…As explained in Myhre et al (2011), the chemical model calculations are one year simulations only, hence the methane concentration may not be in steady state with the change in OH during that year, but depends on the time-history of the emissions. In order to correct for this transient response, factors have been applied based on the method described in Grewe and Stenke (2008). The factors for 2025 are 0.88, 0.91 and 0.94 for AIR B1, AIR B1ACARE and SHIP B1, respectively.…”

Section: Radiative Forcingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH – an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

et al. 2011

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Abstract. The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5 %, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved.Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppbv (when scaling the response of the 5 % emission perturbation to 100 % by applying a factor 20) overCorrespondence to: Ø. Hodnebrog (oivind.hodnebrog@geo.uio.no) the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, shipinduced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12 % near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 10 5 molecules cm −3 and 30 %, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92 (±0.48) % on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH 4 lifetime is 8.0 (±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68 (±0.47) % in 2000.Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NO x molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppbv at northern mid-and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2 %. Although the aviation-induced impact on OH is lower than for shipping, it still causes a reduction in the relative methane lifetime of 1.68 (±0.38) % in 2050 B1. However, for B1 ACARE the perturbation is reduced to 1.17 (±0.28) %, which is lower than the year 2000 estimate of 1.30 (±0.30) %.Based on the fully scaled perturbations we calculate net radiative forcings from the six models taking into account Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 11294 Ø. Hodnebrog et al.: Impact of scenario B1 traffic emissions on ozone and OH ozone, methane (including stratospheric water vapour), and methane-induced ozone changes. For the B1 scenario, shipping leads to a net cooling with radiative forcings of −28.0 (±5.1) and −30.8 (±4.8) mW m −2 in 2025 and 2050, respectively, due to the large impact on OH and, thereby, methane lifetime reductions. Corresponding values for the aviation sector shows a...

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“…The timescale of UTWV enhancement due to such a thermal mechanism would be controlled by rainout and fallout of the aerosol, which is of the order of ∼ 1 month (Prospero, 1983;Pruppacher and Klett, 2010) for particles of intermediate size (∼ 0.3 µm). Water vapour at the tropopause has a typical atmospheric residence time of the order of 3 weeks based on mid-latitude observations (Ehhalt, 1973) and is of the order of a month at high latitudes (Grewe and Stenke, 2008). Water vapour is mostly removed by precipitation (Junge, 1963).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water vapour variability in the high-latitude upper troposphere – Part 2: Impact of volcanic eruptions

et al. 2016

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AirClim: an efficient tool for climate evaluation of aircraft technology

Cited by 116 publications

References 37 publications

Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH – an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

Water vapour variability in the high-latitude upper troposphere – Part 2: Impact of volcanic eruptions

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