Alien species in a warming climate: a case study of the nutcracker and stone pines

Hof, Anouschka R.

doi:10.1007/s10530-014-0813-z

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The more ecological knowledge we have about a species, the better we can predict its future range. Although predictor variables are often limited to climatic variables, some non-climatic variables can be introduced in predictive models to improve predictions (Araújo and Luoto, 2007;Hof et al, 2012a;Hof, 2015). However, not all factors that are important in determining a species' range can be entered in species distribution models as predictor variables.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

Hof

Allen

2019

Science of The Total Environment

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Impacts of climate change are already evident in ecosystems worldwide. High-latitude and altitude regions are at greatest risk because the effects of climate change are greater in these regions, and species from these areas have limited ability to track their climate envelopes. The Caucasian snowcock (Tetraogallus caucasicus) and the Caucasian grouse (Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi) are both high-altitude specialists that are endemic to a restricted range in the Caucasus mountains of Europe. Little research has been performed to determine the status of the populations or the potential impacts of climate change. We investigated how climate and land use change may impact both species in future and determined whether their life history traits may increase their vulnerability using a combined exposure and trait-based index. We compared several climate models, and in all instances, both species showed drastic range contractions although the extent of the contraction varied with each model. Traits like habitat specialism, ground nesting and incubation period meant that both species may be considered "most vulnerable" in the exposure and trait-based index. Given that both species already occur near the maximum elevations of the Caucasus, and that they lack any dispersal capabilities due to the isolation from alternative mountainous areas, research efforts need to be prioritized to improve our knowledge about their population status, to monitor future trends and to begin developing species action plans that conserve these endemic and iconic species of Europe. Both species are flagship and umbrella species and may serve as indicator species, their protection may therefore benefit a whole range of other species inhabiting this vulnerable Alpine ecosystem. Especially the Caucasian grouse has a high aesthetic value and is favoured by hunters in the region. The potential demise of this species may therefore also be negative for local communities.

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Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

Hof

Allen

2019

Science of The Total Environment

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“…The regions with established raccoon populations in Austria mainly include the non-alpine regions, where altitude plays a minor role. However, running iSDMs based on climate change scenarios [67] might yield distinctly deviating predictions for raccoon distribution within the entire alpine range.…”

Section: Climate Drivers Of Raccoon Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental drivers of raccoon (Procyon lotor L.) occurrences in Austria - established versus newly invaded regions

Duscher¹,

Zeveloff²,

Michler³

et al. 2018

Arch biol sci (Beogr)

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As we are faced with the imminent spread of the raccoon (Procyon lotor L.), a successful and highly adaptable invader in Europe, it is necessary to identify the drivers of its distribution and focal areas of its future management. Being an omnivorous species, raccoons can exert considerable influence on prey species of various taxa. Species distribution models for this invasive species can be useful tools for its management. Using a presence-only model (MaxEnt) based on environmental variables selected by raccoon experts, the presence of raccoons in Austria was predicted. Core areas of raccoon colonization are mainly located in and around cities and river valleys. Identified ecological drivers of raccoon distribution comprise climate and land-cover variables, with temperature parameters (e.g. the number of hot days, mean January temperature), the proportion of coniferous forests, settlements and elevation mainly influencing the model output. The importance of habitat parameters changes with the stage of invasion. In Austria's established regions, the probability of raccoon presence was best predicted by variables chosen by an expert of the raccoon's native range, while the predictors chosen by an expert in its introduced range better reflected the situation in recently invaded regions. The significance of climate and land cover in understanding the probability of raccoon presence was shown.

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“…The sensitivity and adaptive capacity of species to climate change should also be determined to obtain more accurate vulnerability assessments. A few studies have demonstrated the potential, and importance, of incorporating species interactions in SDMs (Araújo and Luoto 2007, Hof et al 2012a, Kissling et al 2012, Hof 2015, but opportunities to introduce such factors are limited (Hof et al 2012a). Most studies disregard the potential effect of species interactions, as well as anthropogenic and other abiotic factors, although there is an increasing appeal from the research community to include such factors (Dawson et al 2011, Bellard et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most studies disregard the potential effect of species interactions, as well as anthropogenic and other abiotic factors, although there is an increasing appeal from the research community to include such factors (Dawson et al 2011, Bellard et al 2012. A few studies have demonstrated the potential, and importance, of incorporating species interactions in SDMs (Araújo and Luoto 2007, Hof et al 2012a, Kissling et al 2012, Hof 2015, but opportunities to introduce such factors are limited (Hof et al 2012a). For example, incorporating the future food availability of a generalist species would be conceptually and computationally difficult.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds

Hof

Rodríguez-Castañeda

Allen

et al. 2017

Ecological Applications

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Recent research predicts that future climate change will result in substantial biodiversity loss associated with loss of habitat for species. However, the magnitude of the anticipated biodiversity impacts are less well known. Studies of species vulnerability to climate change through species distribution models are often limited to assessing the extent of species' exposure to the consequences of climate change to their local environment, neglecting species sensitivity to global change. The likelihood that species or populations will decline or go extinct due to climate change also depends on the general sensitivity and adaptive capacity of species. Hence, analyses should also obtain more accurate assessments of their vulnerability. We addressed this by constructing a vulnerability matrix for 180 bird species currently breeding in Subarctic and Arctic Europe that integrates a climatic exposure-based vulnerability index and a natural-history trait-based vulnerability index. Species that may need extra conservation attention based on our matrix include the Great Snipe (Gallinago media), the Rough-legged Buzzard (Buteo lagopus), the Red-throated Pipit (Anthus cervinus), the Common Swift (Apus apus), the Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), and the Bar-tailed Godwit (Limosa lapponica). Our vulnerability matrix stresses the importance of looking beyond exposure to climate change when species conservation is the aim. For the species that scored high in our matrix the future in the region looks grim and targeted conservation actions, incorporating macroecological and global perspectives, may be needed to alleviate severe population declines. We further demonstrate that climate change is predicted to significantly reduce the current breeding range of species adapted to cold climates in Subarctic and Arctic Europe. The number of incubation days and whether the species was a habitat specialist or not were also among the variables most strongly related to predicted contraction or expansion of species' breeding ranges. This approach may aid the identification of vulnerable bird species worldwide.

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Alien species in a warming climate: a case study of the nutcracker and stone pines

Cited by 6 publications

References 38 publications

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

Environmental drivers of raccoon (Procyon lotor L.) occurrences in Austria - established versus newly invaded regions

Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds

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