Background:
Revascularized patients still experience adverse
cardiovascular events. This is particularly true for elderly patients over the
age of 65, as they often have more co-morbid vascular conditions. It is important
to develop a tool to assist clinicians in comprehensively assessing these
patients’ prognosis. The objective of this study is to create a comprehensive
visual nomogram model combining clinical and physiological assessments to predict
outcomes in elderly patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).
Methods:
This study is a retrospective investigation of patients who
underwent PCI between January 2016 and December 2017. A total of 691 patients
with 1461 vessels were randomly divided into a training (n = 483) and a
validation set (n = 208). A multivariate Cox regression model was employed using
the training set to select variables for constructing a nomogram. The performance
of the nomogram was assessed through the receiver operating characteristic curve
(ROC) and calibration curves to evaluate its discrimination and predictive
accuracy. To further assess the clinical usefulness, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis
and landmark analysis were conducted.
Results:
Independent risk factors,
including diabetes mellitus (DM), post-PCI quantitative flow ratio (QFR),
previous myocardial infarction (MI), and previous PCI, were contained in the
nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a good area under the curve (AUC) ranging from
0.742 to 0.789 in the training set, 0.783 to 0.837 in the validation set, and
0.764 to 0.786 in the entire population. Calibration curves demonstrated a
well-fitted curve in all three sets. The Kaplan–Meier curves showed clear
separation and the patients with higher scores in the nomogram model exhibited a
higher incidence of target vessel revascularization (TVR) (7.99% vs. 1.24% for
2-year,
p
0.001 and 13.54% vs. 2.23% for 5-years,
p
0.001, respectively).
Conclusions:
This study has developed the
visually intuitive nomogram to predict the 2-year and 5-year TVR rates for
elderly patients who underwent PCI. This tool provides more accurate and
comprehensive healthcare guidance for patients and their physicians.