All Economics is Local: Spatial Aggregations of Economic Information

Abstract

National economic indicators play a foundational role in political economic research, particularly in regards to electoral politics. Yet, scholars have failed to recognize that national economic indicators are simply aggregations of local economic information, and the manner in which they are aggregated may not be consistent with the process voters use to acquire, access, and incorporate economic information. We argue that the economic similarities among localities, and the way in which the media report on these similarities, provide more theoretically satisfying means of specifying how local information aggregates into an overall portrait of the national economy. We introduce a novel estimation procedure called the spatial-X ordered logit that offers the chance to model how voters’ evaluations respond to changes in contextualized economic information. Our results support our theory that voters incorporate economic information from other localities with similarly structured economies and in ways that are shaped by media messages. Furthermore, these two specifications offer greater explanatory power than national indicators and other geographical means of aggregating economic information. We conclude by offering a number of implications for research questions ranging from electoral accountability to spatial diffusion processes.

Issue Engagement Across Members of Parliament: The Role of Issue Specialization and Party Leadership

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Economic performance and electoral volatility: Testing the economic voting hypothesis on Indian states, 1957–2013

“…In recent work, Kayser and Peress (2012), Fortunato et al (2018), and Park (2019) have argued that voters use the observed performance arising in other countries as a benchmark for incumbent performance. Aytaç (2018) extends this benchmarking hypothesis from a cross-country comparison of performance to a comparison of current economic outcomes with those arising under earlier periods.…”

For whom the bell tolls: Party mediation effects on economic voting in a large democratic federation

“…We also contribute to the literature highlighting the dynamics of state and municipal economic voting and political alliances across federative levels in a robust southern hemisphere democracy, as the comparative literature has focused almost exclusively on the developed industrialized countries (Ebeid & Rodden, 2006; Fortunato et al, 2018). To do that, we will analyze electoral outcomes from all Brazilian municipalities and states at the three Brazilian federative level elections from 2000 through 2016, controlling for municipal public expenditures and socioeconomic‐demographic variables measured at local and state levels.…”