All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

Abstract

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Local Consequences of Global Uncertainty: Capacity Development and LNG Trade Under Shale Gas and Demand Uncertainty and Disruption Risk

“…The model is based on yearly averages in five-year steps. The database is similar to that used by Richter and Holz (2015) and contains 171 country/regions and LNG nodes in 79 countries. 2 It contains a number of quite optimistic unconventional assumptions such as continuous growth in North American unconventionals, strong coal bed methane (CBM) development in China 1 Several large countries are split into separate nodes and liquefaction and regasification terminals are represented as separate nodes.…”

“…We assume that there is a 50% chance that Russian gas transit via Ukraine ends in 2019 In Richter and Holz (2015), we investigated the impact of a temporary transit disruption through Ukraine and found that the current network setting is not sufficient to protect the East European countries from strong consumption reductions and price increases. In this 3 Gazprom's announcement included the refusal to sell its gas beyond the EU border.…”

“…However, rather than using the twenty-region dataset used by Egging (2010Egging ( , 2013, we employ an up-to-date disaggregated dataset consisting of 79 countries and regions used in deterministic studies presented by Richter and Holz (2015).…”

Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market

“…We follow the scenario definition developed in Richter and Holz (2015). In that long disruption scenario the entire Russian natural gas supply to Europe is interrupted and all Gazprom majority-owned infrastructure is shut down from 2015 onwards (see Richter and Holz, 2015, for more detailed scenario description and results). See Table 1 for scenario descriptions and the scenario specific assumptions.…”

“…The dataset includes all current pipelines, 14 The inverse demand function states which price the consumers are willing to pay for each quantity and it is usually a downward-sloping curve. 15 Except for the scenario assumptions, the same data as in Richter and Holz (2015) is used. 16 Note that entry/exit capacities given by ENTSO-G are not necessarily equal to physical restrictions but rather represent "capacity simulations performed by the respective TSOs" (ENTSO-G, 2013b, p. 29).…”