Eighty-eight types of mitochondrial (mt) DNA were found by sequencing the most variable part of the control region from 117 Caucasians. In the tree relating those types, most of the branching events occur about two-thirds of the way from the root of the tree to the tips of the branches. Moreover, the distribution of sequence differences between all possible pairs of individuals is approximately Poisson. Other non-African populations show a similar pattern. Assuming a neutral model, these findings imply that the probability of survival of new lineages has undergone dramatic changes, probably due to population expansion. Conversely, African populations show multimodal distributions fitting with a model of constant population size.Owing to its fast evolution and maternal mode ofinheritance, mtDNA can provide knowledge of genetic relationships among closely related individuals (1, 2). This approach has been used to suggest that all present-day mtDNA variation in humans can be traced back to a common ancestor who probably lived in an African population (3)(4)(5). We now show how the analysis of human mtDNA can give further insight into the evolutionary histories of populations. This advance has been made possible by the accumulation of sequences from the most variable part of mtDNA (4-7), by analyses suggesting that most of the variation in mtDNA is selectively neutral (8-10), and by the consequent development of theoretical methods for estimating such parameters as the size and growth rate of a population (refs. 11 and 12; M. Slatkin and R. Hudson, personal communication).The present article applies one of these methods to the study of the demographic histories ofhuman populations. We present sequences for 117 individuals, mainly from Sardinia and the Middle East.t These sequences allow us to analyze the branching pattern in the genealogical tree and the distribution of pairwise sequence differences between individuals. The Sardinian and Middle Eastern patterns are then compared to those obtained from other populations (refs. 4, 5, and 10; R. Ward, B. Frazer, K. Dew, and S. Paabo, personal communication). Based on these patterns, theoretical expectations generated under the assumption of neutrality and different demographic conditions allow us to infer trends of population size through time for African and non-African populations.MATERIALS AND METHODS Population Samples. Sixty-nine placentas were collected in five maternity hospitals (Cagliari, Nuoro, Oristano, Ozieri, and Sassari) in Sardinia and the geographic origin of each sample was ascertained by the place of birth of the grandparents. The sampling strategy was designed to represent almost all linguistic areas except for one representing a recent foreign settlement (area 22). Sardinia was divided linguistically into 22 areas (14), which were grouped into five zones that are considered to be genetically homogeneous (15); zones A, B, C, D, and E include areas