Alles eine Frage von Kosten und Nutzen? Eine Aggregatdatenanalyse der Abstimmungsbeteiligung in den deutschen Bundesländern zwischen 1946 und 2019

Abstract

Direct democracy in Germany is primarily practiced at the state level. However, little research has analysed why participation rates vary, sometimes drastically, between individual referendums in Germany. The following article addresses this research gap with an analysis of a new aggregate dataset of participation in referendums in the federal states between 1946 and 2019. Based on the Rational Choice Theory of voting, three main factors may explain the variance in participation rates. Higher participation rates can be anticipated when the expected benefit for voters is high (state‐initiated referendums, constitutional or restructuring referendums); when the participation costs are reduced (by combining referendums with salient parallel elections); and when the result is expected to be close. The article demonstrates the analytical usefulness of the Rational Choice Approach. It can serve as a starting point for future empirical referendum participation research, which is hardly developed in Germany, especially at the individual level.