Allowing the Actual Evapotranspiration Uncertainty in Hydrological Models: Coupling of Interval-Based Water Balance and METRIC Models

Abstract

Against the paramount role of actual evapotranspiration (ET) in hydrological modeling, determining its values is mixed with different sources of uncertainties. In addition, estimation of ET with energy-based methods (e.g., METRIC) leads to different results with various acceptable initial and boundary conditions (such as land use and cold/hot pixels). The aim of the current research is to allow the uncertainty effects of ET as an interval-based input variable in hydrological modeling. The goal is achieved via feeding the uncertainty of computed ET values to the developed Interval-Based Water Balance (IBWB) model in terms of gray values. To this purpose, the comprehensive monthly water balance model (including surface and groundwater modules) has been revised to a new interval-based form. Moreover, the METRIC model has been used 20 times in each month of computational period to calculate the ET patterns with different hot/cold pixels to provide monthly ensemble ET values. For a comprehensive assessment, the selected water balance model has been calibrated with ensemble means of the computed ET with its classical type. The study area is a mountainous sub-basin of the Sefidrood watershed, Ghorveh-Dehgolan basin, with three alluvial aquifers in the North of Iran. Not only the paradigm shift from determinist to interval-based hydrologic structure improved the statistical metrics of the models’ responses, but also it decreased the uncertainty of the simulated streamflow and groundwater levels.