Alnus Airborne Pollen Trends during the Last 26 Years for Improving Machine Learning-Based Forecasting Methods

Abstract

Black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.) is a species of tree widespread along Europe and belongs to mixed hardwood forests. In urban environments, the tree is usually located along watercourses, as is the case in the city of Ourense. This taxon belongs to the betulaceae family, so it has a high allergenic potential in sensitive people. Due to the high allergenic capacity of this pollen type and the increase in global temperature produced by climate change, which induces a greater allergenicity, the present study proposes the implementation of a Machine Learning (ML) model capable of accurately predicting high-risk periods for allergies among sensitive people. The study was carried out in the city of Ourense for 28 years and pollen data were collected by means of the Hirst trap model Lanzoni VPPS-2000. During the same period, meteorological data were obtained from the meteorological station of METEOGALICIA in Ourense. We observed that Alnus airborne pollen was present in the study area during winter months, mainly in January and February. We found statistically significant trends for the end of the main pollen season with a lag trend of 0.68 days per year, and an increase in the annual pollen integral of 112 pollen grains per year and approximately 12 pollen grains/m3 per year during the pollen peak. A Spearman correlation test was carried out in order to select the variables for the ML model. The best ML model was Random Forest, which was able to detect those days with medium and high labels.