Alternative biological assumptions strongly influence models of climate change effects on mountain gorillas

Thorne, James H.; Seo, Chang Ho; Basabose, Augustine; Gray, Maryke; Belfiore, Natalia M.; Hijmans, Robert J.

doi:10.1890/es13-00123.1

Cited by 34 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Prior studies have found that GCMs induce as much variation in model results as RCPs (Wright et al 2014), but without following a predictable outcome. As others have previously found (McKenney et al 2011, Tuanmu 2012, Thorne et al 2013, Wright et al 2014, Goberville et al 2015, the choice of GCM had over a 10-fold impact on predicted range loss. Variation between predictions using different GCMs was more pronounced when employing the mechanistic model, which is likely explained by the finer temporal scale of environmental data necessary for the mechanistic model.…”

Section: Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 57%

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation‐ and mechanism‐based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Lyons

Kozak

2019

Ecography

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Forecasting the effects of climate change on species and populations is a fundamental goal of conservation biology, especially for montane endemics which seemingly are under the greatest threat of extinction given their association with cool, high elevation habitats. Species distribution models (also known as niche models) predict where on the landscape there is suitable habitat for a species of interest. Correlative niche modeling, the most commonly employed approach to predict species' distributions, relies on correlations between species' localities and current environmental data. This type of model could spuriously forecast less future suitable habitat because species' current distributions may not adequately represent their thermal tolerance, and future climate conditions may not be analogous to current conditions. We compared the predicted distributions for three montane species of Plethodon salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North America using a correlative modeling approach and a mechanistic model. The mechanistic model incorporates species‐specific physiology, morphology and behavior to predict an annual energy budget on the landscape. Both modeling approaches performed well at predicting the species' current distributions and predicted that all species could persist in habitats at higher elevation through 2085. The mechanistic model predicted more future suitable habitat than the correlative model. We attribute these differences to the mechanistic approach being able to model shifts in key range‐limiting biological processes (changes in surface activity time and energy costs) that the correlative approach cannot. Choice of global circulation model (GCM) contributed significantly to distribution predictions, with a tenfold difference in future suitability based on GCM, indicating that GCM variability should be either directly included in models of species distributions or, indirectly, through the use of multi‐model ensemble averages. Our results indicate that correlative models are over‐predicting habitat loss for montane species, suggesting a critical need to incorporate mechanisms into forecasts of species' range dynamics.

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Section: Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 57%

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation‐ and mechanism‐based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Lyons

Kozak

2019

Ecography

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“…3). This is obviously not the case, which suggests these species were possibly retracted in microrefugia (55, 56) that were not captured by the 10-km spatial resolution of the climate data we used, or that the SDMs for these species were overfitted, which is something to which SDMs for species with a small range size are prone (57). Given the evidence for forested conditions on lowland Sumatra and a lower percentage of wrongly predicted extinct species by MIROC-ESM, we consider our hindcasts with MIROC-ESM the more informative of the two.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical distribution of Sundaland’s Dipterocarp rainforests at Quaternary glacial maxima

Raes

Cannon

Hijmans

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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103

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The extent of Dipterocarp rainforests on the emergent Sundaland landmass in Southeast Asia during Quaternary glaciations remains a key question. A better understanding of the biogeographic history of Sundaland could help explain current patterns of biodiversity and support the development of effective forest conservation strategies. Dipterocarpaceae trees dominate the rainforests of Sundaland, and their distributions serve as a proxy for rainforest extent. We used species distribution models (SDMs) of 317 Dipterocarp species to estimate the geographic extent of appropriate climatic conditions for rainforest on Sundaland at the last glacial maximum (LGM). The SDMs suggest that the climate of central Sundaland at the LGM was suitable to sustain Dipterocarp rainforest, and that the presence of a previously suggested transequatorial savannah corridor at that time is unlikely. Our findings are supported by palynologic evidence, dynamic vegetation models, extant mammal and termite communities, vascular plant fatty acid stable isotopic compositions, and stable carbon isotopic compositions of cave guano profiles. Although Dipterocarp species richness was generally lower at the LGM, areas of high species richness were mostly found off the current islands and on the emergent Sunda Shelf, indicating substantial species migration and mixing during the transitions between the Quaternary glacial maxima and warm periods such as the present.Quaternary | last glacial maximum | Sundaland | Dipterocarpaceae | species distribution model

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“…Overall, our findings on the relationship between ecological factors and stress response suggest that Virunga mountain gorillas may have a harder time coping with warmer temperatures and more extreme rainfall. Thus, mountain gorillas might be more sensitive to warming trends than previous research has suggested (Thorne et al, ), since their small habitat restricts their ability to seek out colder temperatures (Loarie et al, ; La Sorte & Jetz, ). Climate models predict a temperature increase of 3.6°C, prolonged dry seasons, and a potential upward shift of flora communities of approximately 600 to 700 m in the region by 2090, relative to 1990 (McGahey et al, ; Warner et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Social and ecological factors alter stress physiology of Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

Eckardt

Stoinski

Rosenbaum

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Living in a rapidly changing environment can alter stress physiology at the population level, with negative impacts on health, reproductive rates, and mortality that may ultimately result in species decline. Small, isolated animal populations where genetic diversity is low are at particular risks, such as endangered Virunga mountain gorillas ( Gorilla beringei beringei ). Along with climate change‐associated environmental shifts that are affecting the entire population, subpopulations of the Virunga gorillas have recently experienced extreme changes in their social environment. As the growing population moves closer to the forest's carrying capacity, the gorillas are coping with rising population density, increased frequencies of interactions between social units, and changing habitat use (e.g., more overlapping home ranges and routine ranging at higher elevations). Using noninvasive monitoring of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGM) on 115 habituated Virunga gorillas, we investigated how social and ecological variation are related to baseline FGM levels, to better understand the adaptive capacity of mountain gorillas and monitor potential physiological indicators of population decline risks. Generalized linear mixed models revealed elevated mean monthly baseline FGM levels in months with higher rainfall and higher mean maximum and minimum temperature, suggesting that Virunga gorillas might be sensitive to predicted warming and rainfall trends involving longer, warmer dry seasons and more concentrated and extreme rainfall occurrences. Exclusive use of smaller home range areas was linked to elevated baseline FGM levels, which may reflect reduced feeding efficiency and increased travel efforts to actively avoid neighboring groups. The potential for additive effects of stress‐inducing factors could have short‐ and long‐term impacts on the reproduction, health, and ultimately survival of the Virunga gorilla population. The ongoing effects of environmental changes and population dynamics must be closely monitored and used to develop effective long‐term conservation strategies that can help address these risk factors.

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Alternative biological assumptions strongly influence models of climate change effects on mountain gorillas

Cited by 34 publications

References 59 publications

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation‐ and mechanism‐based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation‐ and mechanism‐based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Historical distribution of Sundaland’s Dipterocarp rainforests at Quaternary glacial maxima

Social and ecological factors alter stress physiology of Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

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