Alternative environmental contours for structural reliability analysis

Huseby, Arne Bang; Vanem, Erik; Natvig, Bent

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.12.003

Cited by 83 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…where the second equality follows since we have assumed that F is convex and hence contained in Π + (u) for all F ∈ E. In fact for all u ∈ U we have Π + (u) ∈ E as well, and these halfspaces are the maximal sets within E. Moreover, the last equation follows by the definition of C(a) given in (7). Thus, we conclude that the contour ∂B indeed has the correct exceedence probability with respect to E. See [8] for further details regarding this.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Contoursmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Buffered environmental contours

Dahl¹,

Huseby²

2018

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

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The main idea of this paper is to use the notion of buffered failure probability from probabilistic structural design, first introduced by [14], to introduce buffered environmental contours. Classical environmental contours are used in structural design in order to obtain upper bounds on the failure probabilities of a large class of designs. The purpose of buffered failure probabilities is the same. However, in constrast to classical environmental contours, this new concept does not just take into account failure vs. functioning, but also to which extent the system is failing. For example, this is relevant when considering the risk of flooding: We are not just interested in knowing whether a river has flooded. The damages caused by the flooding greatly depends on how much the water has risen above the standard level.

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Section: Monte Carlo Contoursmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…There are many possible ways of constructing environmental contours. In this paper we focus on the Monte Carlo based approach first introduced in [5], and improved in [7] and [6].…”

Section: Monte Carlo Contoursmentioning

confidence: 99%

Buffered environmental contours

Dahl¹,

Huseby²

2018

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

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“…Huseby et al, 2013Huseby et al, , 2015Jonathan and Ewans, 2013). These contours are defined within the input variables space but are based on the probability of exceedance of the response variable.…”

Section: Environmental Contourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A classical way of defining such environmental contours is to use the inverse firstorder reliability method (iFORM) (Winterstein et al, 1993). Here we preferred to use the approach developed by Huseby et al (2013Huseby et al ( , 2015 as it overcomes some limitations of the iFORM and it is especially suited to Monte Carlo simulated datasets. An environmental contour defined in this way is an (x, y) contour in the space (SWL, H s ), outlining a convex inner surface.…”

Section: Environmental Contourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the related field of structural engineering (design of coastal defences, offshore renewable energy systems, etc. ), it is usual to refer to the environmental contour concept in conjunction with the inverse first-order reliability method (iFORM) (Winterstein et al, 1993;Jonathan and Ewans, 2013;Huseby et al, 2013Huseby et al, , 2015. Such an approach focuses on extreme system responses rather than on the combinations of extreme environmental loads.…”

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confidence: 99%

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High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

Lerma¹,

Bulteau²,

Elineau³

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping / overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

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Environmental contours for circular‐linear variables based on the direct sampling method

2019

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Environmental contours are often used in the design of engineering structures to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. The perhaps most common application of environmental contours is for wave climate variables such as significant wave height and wave period. However, for the design of wind energy installations, the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction may be equally important. In this case, joint modelling of linear (wind speed) and circular (wind direction) variables are needed, and methods for establishing environmental contours for circular-linear variables will be required.In this paper, different ways of establishing environmental contours for circular-linear variables will be presented and applied to a joint distribution model for wind speed and wind direction.In particular, the direct sampling approach to environmental contours will be modified to the case where one of the variables is cyclic. In addition, contours based on exceedance planes in polar coordinates will be established, and circular-linear contours will also be calculated based on the inverse FORM (I-FORM) approach.

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Alternative environmental contours for structural reliability analysis

Cited by 83 publications

References 36 publications

Buffered environmental contours

Buffered environmental contours

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

Environmental contours for circular‐linear variables based on the direct sampling method

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