Alternative graphical displays for the monitoring of epidemic outbreaks, with application to COVID-19 mortality

Perneger, Thomas; Kevorkian, A.; Grenet, T.; Gallee, H.; Gayet-Ageron, Angèle

doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01122-8

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…COVID-19 growth has been modeled logarithmically (15, 18, 19) and linearly (19, 20). Therefore, we calculated COVID-19 case growth for each US state by measuring percent natural logarithmic (Ln Growth) and percent linear (Fold Growth) relative growth rates: …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States

Guerra

Guerra²

2021

Preprint

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Background: Containment of the COVID-19 pandemic requires evidence-based strategies to reduce transmission. Because COVID-19 can spread via respired droplets, many states have mandated mask use in public settings. Randomized control trials have not clearly demonstrated mask efficacy against respiratory viruses, but observational studies suggest greater mask compliance may be associated with lower infection rates. We hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use are associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates in the United States. Methods: We calculated total COVID-19 case growth and mask use for the continental United States with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. We estimated post-mask mandate case growth in non-mandate states using median issuance dates of neighboring states with mandates. Results: Case growth was not significantly different between mandate and non-mandate states at low or high transmission rates, and surges were equivocal. Mask use predicted lower case growth at low, but not high transmission rates. Growth rates were comparable between states in the top and bottom mask use quintiles adjusted for normalized total cases early in the pandemic and unadjusted after peak Fall-Winter infections. Mask use did not predict Summer 2020 case growth for non-Northeast states or Fall-Winter 2020 growth for all states. Conclusions: Mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 growth surges. COVID-19 containment requires future research and implementation of existing efficacious strategies.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States

Guerra

Guerra²

2021

Preprint

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“…It is also common to report weekly numbers of excess deaths. The aim of these studies is primarily detection of outbreaks [ 7 , 20 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying and communicating the burden of COVID-19

Cube

Timsit

Kammerlander

et al. 2021

BMC Med Res Methodol

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Background An essential aspect of preventing further COVID-19 outbreaks and to learn for future pandemics is the evaluation of different political strategies, which aim at reducing transmission of and mortality due to COVID-19. One important aspect in this context is the comparison of attributable mortality. Methods We give a comprehensive overview of six epidemiological measures that are used to quantify COVID-19 attributable mortality (p-score, standardized mortality ratio, absolute number of excess deaths, per capita rate, z-score and the population attributable fraction). Results By defining the six measures based on observed and expected deaths, we explain their relationship. Moreover, three publicly available data examples serve to illustrate the interpretational strengths and weaknesses of the various measures. Finally, we give recommendation which measures are suitable for an evaluation of public health strategies against COVID-19. The R code to reproduce the results is available as online supplementary material. Conclusion The number of excess deaths should be always reported together with the population attributable fraction, the p-score or the standardized mortality ratio instead of a per capita rate. For a complete picture of COVID-19 attributable mortality, quantifying and communicating its relative burden also to a lay audience is of major importance.

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“…COVID-19 growth has been modeled logarithmically [15,18,19] and linearly [19,20] . Therefore, we calculated COVID-19 case growth for each US state by measuring percent natural logarithmic [Ln Growth] and percent linear [Fold Growth] relative growth rates:…”

Section: Growth Rate Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent study reported time-enhanced negative association between mask mandates and Ln Growth of COVID-19 [15] , but simple Fold-Growth [an alternative COVID-19 metric [19,20] may be preferred for post-exponential, linear pandemic spread. PCR testing for COVID-19 was limited before Summer 2020 [27] .…”

Section: Earlier Mask Mandates Are Not Consistently Associated With Covid-19 Growth Rates In Us Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mask...

2021

irjph

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Background: COVID-19 pandemic mitigation requires evidence-based strategies. Because COVID-19 can spread via respired droplets, most US states mandated mask use in public settings. Randomized control trials have not clearly demonstrated mask efficacy against respiratory viruses, and observational studies conflict on whether mask use predicts lower infection rates. We hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use were associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates in the United States. Methods: We calculated total COVID-19 case growth and mask use for the continental United States with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. We estimated post-mask mandate case growth in non-mandate states using median issuance dates of neighboring states with mandates. Results: Earlier mask mandates were not associated with lower total cases or lower maximum growth rates. Earlier mandates were weakly associated with lower minimum COVID-19 growth rates. Mask use predicted lower minimum but not lower maximum growth rates. Growth rates and total growth were comparable between US states in the first and last mask use quintiles during the Fall-Winter wave. These observations persisted for both natural logarithmic and fold growth models and when adjusting for differences in US state population density. Conclusions: We did not observe association between mask mandates or use and reduced COVID-19 spread in US states. COVID-19 mitigation requires further research and use of existing efficacious strategies, most notably vaccination.

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Alternative graphical displays for the monitoring of epidemic outbreaks, with application to COVID-19 mortality

Cited by 7 publications

References 9 publications

Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States

Mask mandate and use efficacy for COVID-19 containment in US States

Quantifying and communicating the burden of COVID-19

Mask...

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