Alternative Scenarios for Africa

Shaw, Timothy M.; Goulding, Paul

doi:10.4324/9780429048784-4

Cited by 1 publication

(4 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…All these models used 2000 as the target year (Shaw, 1982). They all showed Africa as likely to be more peripheral and dependent by the year 2000.…”

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It was evident that innovative responses were needed to mitigate the impending crisis. At the time, key drivers of the future of Africa included: growing dependency on former colonial powers; the prospect of a new economic order based on self‐reliance; the growing inability of Africa to feed itself; the alienation of African leadership; national and regional integration efforts; the ability to modernize by domesticating science and technology; conflicts; and superpower politics (Shaw, 1982).…”

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The crisis and search for pathways saw foresight applied to chart a way forward. One major exercise conducted was Timothy Shaw's “Alternative Futures of Africa” study (Shaw, 1982). It was motivated by the lack of foresight exercises focusing on Africa at the time when Africa was in dire need of such studies (Shaw, 1982).…”

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One major exercise conducted was Timothy Shaw's “Alternative Futures of Africa” study (Shaw, 1982). It was motivated by the lack of foresight exercises focusing on Africa at the time when Africa was in dire need of such studies (Shaw, 1982). It was hoped that the study would prompt African people to recognize and deal with the implication of alternative scenarios by making appropriate policy choices.…”

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Foresight for a better African future: Lessons from six decades of practice

Adesida,

Gatune,

Eyakuze

2024

Development Policy Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

MotivationBeing able to anticipate (foresight) and thus identify development pathways and make long‐term plans is crucial for the transformation of Africa. However, long‐term planning was abandoned as many African countries went into crisis, being mostly forced to adopt structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s. Although long‐term planning began to make a comeback in the 1990s, the resulting visions have tended to remain that— visions—not fully reflected in policy implementation.PurposeThe article explores the many cycles of foresight in Africa to gain insight into how foresight can become an opportunity to generate new development options and strategies for Africa. Various examples of foresight in Africa are examined to tease out the imperatives for African policy‐makers to embed foresight into development management.Approach and MethodsWe review foresight in Africa, starting by mapping foresight exercises in the continent since independence. We identify three categories of foresight exercises: development partner‐led, government‐led, and civil society‐led. Given the involvement of the authors in some of the exercises, assessments are largely derived from personal communications, recollections, and reflections.FindingsFour insights emerge. First, foresight exercises have had little impact on leaders and decision‐makers, in large part because they have not been intimately engaged in the exercises.Two, foresight narratives tend to be challenging, raising difficult issues that may require substantial and difficult reforms. Faced with everyday challenges of government, leaders have usually chosen to ignore and disbelieve foresight exercises.Three, foresight analysts have not been sufficiently empathetic to the highly constrained systems of public governance and the ministers and civil servants that operate them.Four, futures initiatives can present the factors that may shape the future as overwhelming; and thereby discounting and undervaluing individual and collective agency.Policy implicationsExploring the future is not new in Africa. In traditional African societies, the need to explore the future has been recognized, as captured in proverbs and mythologies. The challenge facing African countries today is how to domesticate and democratize “modern” foresight so it becomes a way of life for decision‐makers and institutions.

show abstract

“…All these models used 2000 as the target year (Shaw, 1982). They all showed Africa as likely to be more peripheral and dependent by the year 2000.…”

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Africa's Development History and Foresight Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Foresight for a better African future: Lessons from six decades of practice

Adesida,

Gatune,

Eyakuze

2024

Development Policy Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Alternative Scenarios for Africa

Cited by 1 publication

References 0 publications

Foresight for a better African future: Lessons from six decades of practice

Foresight for a better African future: Lessons from six decades of practice

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About