Alternative scenarios for agricultural research.

Abstract

Scenario development is a way of generating relevant information about an uncertain future. Agricultural research organizations may use scenario development in their long term planning processes, particularly where socioeconomic and political conditions appear to be changing. Development and use of alternative scenarios is discussed and their relevance to agricultural research is considered. Examples from the Brazilian Corporation for Agricultural Research are cited.

Agricultural Innovation Systems

“…Public agencies, such as universities, research institutes, and government departments, can collect, analyze, and communicate information about the AIS, making it available not just to their own networks but to wider professional or producer associations, media agencies, private sector groups, and others. An exam- Source: Authors; Gijsbers et al 2000;Alston et al 1995. ple of such an initiative is the use of foresighting and scenario planning exercises (TN 3). Furthermore, governments can encourage participation by the private sector, recognizing that proprietary rights may be associated with information sharing among enterprises.…”

“…Scenarios (different possible visions of the future) can be used to formulate long-term policy, institutional strategy, and research programs (Johnson and Paez 2000). In a foresight exercise, a process of defining and describing scenarios is used to explore the way that choices made today will lead to alternative futures.…”