Alternative type 2 diabetes screening tests may reduce the number of U.S. adults with undiagnosed diabetes

Abstract

Aim To evaluate the U.S. population-level impact of two alternatives for initial type 2 diabetes screening [opportunistic random plasma glucose (RPG) > 6.7 mmol/l and a 1-h 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) > 8.9 mmol/l] compared with American Diabetes Association (ADA)-recommended tests. Methods Using a sample (n = 1471) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013-2014 that represented 145 million U.S. adults at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes, we simulated a two-test screening process. We compared ADA-recommended screening tests [fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), HbA 1c ] vs. initial screening with opportunistic RPG or GCT (followed by FPG, OGTT or HbA 1c). After simulation, participants were entered into an individual-level Monte Carlo-based Markov lifetime outcomes model. Primary outcomes were representative number of U.S. adults correctly identified with type 2 diabetes, societal lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results In NHANES 2013-2014, 100 individuals had undiagnosed diabetes [weighted estimate: 8.4 million, standard error (SE): 1.1 million]. Among ADA-recommended screening tests, FPG followed by OGTT (FPG-OGTT) was most sensitive, identifying 35 individuals with undiagnosed diabetes (weighted estimate: 3.2 million, SE: 0.9 million). Four alternative screening strategies performed superior to FPG-OGTT, with RPG followed by OGTT being the most sensitive overall, identifying 72 individuals with undiagnosed diabetes (weighted estimate: 6.1 million, SE: 1.0 million). There was no increase in average lifetime costs and comparable QALYs. Conclusions Initial screening using opportunistic RPG or a GCT may identify more U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes without increasing societal costs.

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