Altitudinal shifts of the native and introduced flora of <scp>C</scp>alifornia in the context of 20th‐century warming

Wolf, Adam; Zimmerman, Naupaka; Anderegg, William R. L.; Busby, Posy E.; Christensen, Jon

doi:10.1111/geb.12423

Cited by 59 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Our analysis considered only expansions in the poleward or upper elevational range margin, as analyses of other margins are comparatively sparse. However, heterogeneous change in climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation may cause some species to move in counterintuitive directions to track favorable climate (Crimmins, Dobrowski, Greenberg, Abatzoglou, & Mynsberge, ; Tingley et al., ; Wolf, Zimmerman, Anderegg, Busby, & Christensen, ). Species’ traits may be stronger predictors of range shifts when investigated in the context of niche tracking and environmental matching (Sol et al., ; Wittmann, Barnes, Jerde, Jones, & Lodge, ; Wogan, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta‐analysis

MacLean

Beissinger

2017

Global Change Biology

259

262

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A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species' responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta-analysis on study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta‐analysis

MacLean

Beissinger

2017

Global Change Biology

259

262

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Nonetheless, there is some evidence to suggest that forest mortality may now be occurring more frequently globally because of the growing intensity of droughts and heatwaves, which is expected to continue under climate change (Allen et al, ). Further research is needed to identify whether traits other than growth form could be used to predict in situ adaptive capacity attributable to niche truncation (Anderegg & HilleRisLambers, ), just as other traits are more informative for predicting range shifts (Early & Sax, ; Wolf et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants

Буш

Catullo

Mokany

et al. 2017

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim: Despite recognition that realized distributions inherently underestimate species' physiological tolerances, we are yet to identify the extent of these differences within diverse taxonomic groups.The degree to which species could tolerate environmental conditions outside their observed distributions may have a significant impact on the perceived extinction risk in ecological models. More information on this potential error is required to improve our confidence in management strategies. Location: Australia.Time Period: 1983-2012.Major Taxa Studied: Plants. Methods:To quantify the scale and spatial patterns of this disparity, we estimated the existing tolerance to thermal extremes of 7,124 Australian plants, more than one-third of the native continental flora, using data from cultivated records at 128 botanical gardens and nurseries.Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression was used to assess whether factors such as realized niches, traits or phylogeny could predict the incidence or magnitude of niche truncation (underestimation of thermal tolerances), while controlling for sources of collection bias.Results: Approximately half of the cultivated species analysed could tolerate temperature extremes beyond those experienced in their native range. Niche truncation was predictable from the breadth and extremes of their realized niches and by traits such as plant growth form. Phylogenetic relationships with niche truncation were weak and appeared more suited to predicting thermal tolerances directly.Main conclusions: This study highlights a widespread disparity between realized and potential thermal limits that may have significant implications for species' capacity to persist in situ with a changing climate. Identifying whether thermal niche truncation is the result of biotic interactions, dispersal constraints or other environmental factors could provide significant insight into community assembly at macroecological scales. Estimating niche truncation may help to explain why certain ecological communities are more resilient to change and may potentially improve the reliability of model projections under climate change. K E Y W O R D Sadaptive capacity, biodiversity modelling, climate change, niche truncation, potential niche, realized niche, tolerance niche 22 |

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“…The sampling was structured so that fewer samples were taken from earlier years to reflect the historical distribution of occurrence records, as specimens have been collected at higher frequency after the 1970s (see Wolf et al . ), resulting in 14 520 background points. The background data were sampled such that climate data from two random locations were sampled for every month of all years in the period from 1896 to 1920.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The seasonal climate niche predicts phenology and distribution of an ephemeral annual plant, Mollugo verticillata

2017

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Summary Many short‐lived species complete their life cycles during brief seasonal windows of favourable environmental conditions. Such species may persist in the face of climate warming by migration to track their seasonal climate niche in space and/or by phenological shifts to track favourable conditions in time within the year. To describe the seasonal climate niche of the short‐lived annual Mollugo verticillata in California, we used data from herbarium specimens and historic climate records to estimate environmental conditions at the location, month and year of each collection. We used these data in a MaxEnt framework to construct a seasonal species distribution model (SDM) of the species’ climate niche within the total climate space available across all seasons and locations in California. The model provides fine‐scale spatial and temporal predictions of habitat suitability, predicting both where and when the species should be observed. We compared the predictions of the model to those from a conventional SDM based on mean annual climate data. Both models showed that M. verticillata is limited to warm environments within California. However, the seasonal SDM also predicted phenology by mapping climate suitability across the state for each month of the year. Mollugo verticillata is limited to warm months, and its seasonal climate niche shifts in space across California in the course of the year. We used the seasonal SDM to map the predicted future species distribution for each month of the year under three warming scenarios. The species is predicted to expand its range and occur earlier in the year in most locations; in the warmest locations, seasonal suitability is predicted to decline in the warmest months, which may result in bimodal phenology with a mid‐summer gap. Synthesis. We developed a novel species distribution model using herbarium records and monthly weather data, which predicts not only where a short‐lived species should be found but also when during the year it is predicted to occur in those areas. This model can be used to predict how climate change will affect the species distribution in space as well as seasonal phenology across the landscape.

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Altitudinal shifts of the native and introduced flora of California in the context of 20th‐century warming

Cited by 59 publications

References 51 publications

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta‐analysis

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta‐analysis

Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants

The seasonal climate niche predicts phenology and distribution of an ephemeral annual plant, Mollugo verticillata

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