We evaluated the impact of hepatic steatosis-insulin resistance (HS-IR) and liver fibrosis (LF) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) using triglyceride-glucose (TyG) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4). The incidence of DM2 was 12.9 [95% confidence interval (CI), 16.9–9.7] and 9.8 (95% CI, 6.9–13.6) per 1000 person-years in HS-IR and LF. The prevalence of HS-IR was significantly lower at 12 and 24 months with TDF + (3TC or FTC) + RPV [hazard ratio (HR) 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3–0.8], P < 0.01 at 12 months; 0.6 [0.4–0.9], P = 0.01 at 24 months].