Review articledecades, supporting the view that the increasing global burden of AF is the consequence of a growing population living longer in the presence of chronic risk factors. Importantly, the total number of DALYs associated with AF has risen significantly, from 3.8 million in 1990 to 8.4 million in 2019 (ref. 1 ). The contribution to AF-associated DALYs of modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension, alcohol consumption, obesity and smoking, has also risen considerably over the same period 1 (Fig. 1).
Lifetime riskIn Europe and the USA, an estimated 25% of individuals aged >55 years will develop AF over their lifespan 5,6 . However, several important factors modify this lifetime risk, including race and ethnicity, sex, and burden of clinical comorbidities [7][8][9][10][11] . In the USA, the risk of AF seems to be higher among white people than in Black or Hispanic individuals 7-9 . Similar patterns have been observed in the UK, where the incidence of AF among white individuals exceeds that for Black or Asian individuals 10 . In a database of >10 million participants in China, the lifetime risk of AF was approximately 20% 11 . Although no direct comparisons between racial or ethnic groups were made in this study, these data support a lower lifetime risk of AF in Asian than in Western populations.An interaction between race and sex also seems to be present. In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study 12 , the lifetime risk of AF was higher in white men than in white women (36% versus 30%, respectively). Although the lifetime risk of AF in Black participants was lower than for white individuals, it did not differ significantly between men and women (21% and 22%, respectively) 12 . An elevated risk of AF among men has been shown elsewhere in cohorts of individuals of European ancestry 6 . In contemporary analyses from the FHS, the overall lifetime risk of AF at index age 55 years was 37% and was higher in men than in women, regardless of the underlying clinical risk factor profile 13 . By contrast, data from four European cohorts pooled as part of the BiomarCaRE consortium indicated that, although the onset of AF in women tended to be approximately 10 years later than in men, the lifetime risk was similar (~30%) 14 .
Geographical disparitiesThe GBD 2019 study 1 revealed the highest age-standardized DALYs associated with AF in Australasia (168 per 100,000), North America (160 per 100,000 persons) and Europe (132 per 100,000). The lowest rates were observed for some countries in the Asia Pacific region (99 per 100,000), South America (91 per 100,000), sub-Saharan Africa (84 per 100,000) and the Middle East (82 per 100,000). However, the low DALYs reported in these regions could be due to a lack of available data and lower rates of AF diagnosis. In addition, differences in risk factor prevalence and genetics may contribute to the geographical disparities in AF incidence.
Clinical risk factor scoresCombining clinical risk factors into a composite score provides strong predictive capability for the i...