American bullfrog invasion in Argentina: where should we take urgent measures?

Nori, Javier; Akmentins, Mauricio Sebastián; Ghirardi, Romina; Frutos, Nicolás; Leynaud, Gerardo C.

doi:10.1007/s10531-011-0014-3

Cited by 23 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Some management recommendations regarding the spread of L. catesbeianus in South America have been made in recent studies [23], [24], [26], [27]. We agree with the authors and consider that urgent measures should be taken in the Atlantic Forest.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

et al. 2011

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BackgroundBiological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species' range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted.Conclusion/SignificanceWe provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

et al. 2011

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“…Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to test biogeographic 54 hypotheses (Mourrelle & Ezcurra 1996;Leathwick 1998), for species delimitation 55 (Raxworthy et al 2007), to assess the impact of global climatic changes on species 56 (Araújo & New 2007;Coetzee et al 2009), to establish conservation priorities (Margules 57 & Pressey 2000;Nori et al 2011), and to predict the impact and distribution of invasive 58 species (Nori et al 2011). According to its use we may choose a modelling approach that 59 better suits the goal of the study as different modelling approaches involve different 60 trade-offs between accuracy and generality (Guisan & Zimmermann 2000;Guisan & 61 Thuiller 2005).…”

Section: Introduction 53mentioning

confidence: 99%

Goal-oriented evaluation of species distribution models’ accuracy and precision: True Skill Statistic profile and uncertainty maps

Ruete

Leynaud

2015

Preprint

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The use of species distribution models’ (SDM) is limited by its performance in terms of accuracy, precision, or the spatial distribution of model errors. Despite the wide acceptance of some standard statistics used to evaluate SDM, there is currently a strong on-going debate as to their use. The “area under the curve” (AUC) is a popular measure used to evaluate SDMs; however, it does not provide complete information about model accuracy. The maximum True Skill Statistic (TSS) is another statistic that is gaining acceptance. However, evaluations of a model’s accuracy solely based on this statistic may also be misleading. We investigate the use of alternative methods to evaluate the performance of SDMs, to objectively compare among different modelling approaches. We evaluate the performance of SDMs fitted to simulated and real data by contrasting model predictions to additional validation datasets. We propose visualising TSS scores over the whole detection threshold range (TSS profile). We show how models with similarly good performance according to AUC, present very different results and may serve to different purposes. Also, a high maximum TSS may not guarantee accurate predictions and should be accompanied by the threshold where the maximum is reached (t*). We observe that the higher t* the better predicted observations correlate with confirmed observations. Also, SDM predictions should be accompanied with the corresponding uncertainty map to avoid misleading conclusions. Too high or too widely spread uncertainty on such maps would question the overall accuracy of the model. Whether the model is intended to detect all potential observation sites (sensitive model) or to accurately predict where confirmed observations could be found (specific model) sets a different performance targets to be achieved by the model. The approach proposed helps to discern which SDM may best suit the intended goals. Furthermore, the TSS profile helps i) to evaluate the overall performance of SDMs and compare among them, ii) to identify the main source of error, and iii) to select a detection threshold depending on the maps intended use.

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“…Only one species of amphibian or reptile in Argentina – the American bullfrog – has invaded extensively (Akmentins & Cardozo, ; Nori, Akmentins, Ghirardi, Frutos, & Leynaud, ). To date there are only a few isolated records of non‐native species of reptiles, mainly associated with urban centres, which apparently have not yet become established or dispersed within natural areas of the country (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Buying environmental problems: The invasive potential of imported freshwater turtles in Argentina

Nori

Tessarolo

Ficetola

et al. 2016

Aquatic Conservation

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1. In recent years, decision-makers in Argentina have allowed the legal import of thousands of specimens of freshwater turtles. Given their invasive potential, many of the imported species have become established and have spread to other countries.2. The three most commonly imported species recently have been Graptemys pseudogeographica, Trachemys scripta, and Pseudemys nelsoni, all of them native to North America.3. This study assessed the invasive potential of these species in Argentina based on (i) bioclimatic envelope models, (ii) distribution of water bodies, (iii) location of the most populated cities, (iv) comparisons between their alien and native climatic niches, and (v) the main ecological traits of those species.4. The results showed that these species are able to establish viable populations in Argentina, especially T. scripta and G. pseudogeographica. This is because the country offers a large amount of suitable climatic space for these species, in which there are large areas with rivers and other water bodies. The situation is especially problematic in freshwater ecosystems of the north east, as well as in the most populated portion of the country. 5. A range of regulatory policies are suggested, which could help to reduce biodiversity loss and economic impacts in the future.

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American bullfrog invasion in Argentina: where should we take urgent measures?

Cited by 23 publications

References 21 publications

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

Goal-oriented evaluation of species distribution models’ accuracy and precision: True Skill Statistic profile and uncertainty maps

Buying environmental problems: The invasive potential of imported freshwater turtles in Argentina

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