Americans discount the effect of friction on voter turnout

Abstract

Whether or not someone turns out to vote depends on their beliefs (such as partisanship or sense of civic duty) and on friction —external barriers such as long travel distance to the polls. In this exploratory study, we tested whether people underestimate the effect of friction on turnout and overestimate the effect of beliefs. We surveyed a representative sample of eligible US voters before and after the 2020 election ( n = 1,280). Participants’ perceptions consistently underemphasized friction and overemphasized beliefs (mean d = 0.94). In participants’ open-text explanations, 91% of participants listed beliefs, compared with just 12% that listed friction. In contrast, turnout was shaped by beliefs only slightly more than friction. The actual belief-friction difference was about one-fourth the size of participants’ perceptions (d = 0.24). This bias emerged across a range of survey measures (open- and close-ended; other- and self-judgments) and was implicated in downstream consequences such as support for friction-imposing policies and failing to plan one’s vote.

The i-frame and the s-frame: How focusing on individual-level solutions has led behavioral public policy astray

“…Finally, in a democracy, key individual decisions citizens make is through voting – and a crucial systemic challenge is to maximize turnout. Recent work (Mazar, Tomaino, Carmon, & Wood, 2022) has revealed that people dramatically underestimate the impact of “frictional” factors (e.g., long-distances to travel) on voter turnout. Citizens who are particularly prone to this bias are especially supportive of measures that would increase frictional effects.…”

Residential mobility and persistently depressed voting among disadvantaged adults in a large housing experiment

“…However, most MTO adult participants faced barriers to AVR since most of them do not own a car or driver’s license, despite moving to neighborhoods that necessitate driving as a means of transport ( 45 ). Studies show that not owning a car reduces voter turnout ( 46 ). These existing studies on AVR predict that the vouchers would reduce voter registration for those without driver’s licenses more so than those who have driver’s licenses.…”

The i-Frame and the s-Frame: How Focusing on the Individual-Level Solutions Has Led Behavioral Public Policy Astray

“…Finally, in a democracy, key individual decisions citizens make is through voting---and a crucial systemic challenge is to maximize turn-out. Recent work (Mazar, Tomaino, Carmon & Wood, 2022) has revealed that people dramatically underestimate the impact of "frictional" factors (e.g., long-distances to travel) on voter turn-out. Citizens who are particularly prone to this bias are especially supportive of measures that would increase frictional effects.…”