An actionable understanding of societal transitions: the X-curve framework

Hebinck, Aniek; Diercks, Gijs; Wirth, Timo von; Beers, Pieter J.; Barsties, Lisa S.; Buchel, Sophie; Greer, Rachel; Steenbergen, Frank van; Loorbach, Derk

doi:10.1007/s11625-021-01084-w

Cited by 66 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…1 —yellow curve). The use of two S-curves—one declining and one rising—takes the form of an ‘X-curve’ which represents the dual process of growth and decline in transformation (Sharpe et al 2016 ; Davelaar 2021 ; Herrfahrdt-Pähle et al 2020 ; Markard et al 2020 ; Hebinck et al 2022 ).…”

Section: Accelerating Transformations To Sustainable Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

Allen

Malekpour

2023

Sustain Sci

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As we cross the 2030 deadline to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a growing sense of urgency around the need to accelerate the necessary transformations. These encompass a broad range of systems and require fundamental changes in system goals and design. In this paper, we undertake a narrative review of the literature relating to the acceleration of transformations and offer a framework for unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs. While there is no blueprint for acceleration, there is an expanding knowledge base on important dynamics, impediments and enabling conditions across diverse literatures which can help to inform strategic interventions by actors. The emerging literature on positive tipping points and deep leverage points identifies opportunities to rewire systems design so that important system feedbacks create the conditions for acceleration. Transformation takes time and actors will need to build momentum to reorient systems around new goals, informed by knowledge of common policy, technology and behavioural feedbacks that govern system dynamics. Where resistance is strong, actors can seek to augment system design in ways that weaken balancing feedbacks that stabilise existing system configurations and strengthen reinforcing feedbacks that promote emerging system configurations oriented towards the SDGs. Well-designed and sequenced interventions can promote innovation and behaviour change and build and maintain political support. This can build critical enabling conditions and push systems towards large-scale tipping points, paving the way for decisive policy action that is crucial for triggering acceleration. We conclude by highlighting gaps and priorities for further research.

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Section: Accelerating Transformations To Sustainable Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

Allen

Malekpour

2023

Sustain Sci

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“…Scholars from transition studies have conceptualised transformation through the so-called X-curve (see Figure 2), which depicts how alternative systems emerge, and how existing systems decline (Hebinck et al, 2022). This is not necessarily through a process of revolution in which existing systems are fully and radically replaced by others, but it can also be through evolution, through processes of (partial) substitution and more gradual conversion of systems.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…under influence of a major event such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or technological changes such as mobile broadband internet), but also incremental steps or 'small wins' (Schagen et al, 2023;Termeer and Metze, 2019). Hebinck et al, 2022) It seems that food systems transformation is moving towards the phase of emergence and chaos. Since the need for food systems change has been recognised for some time (Willett et al, 2019), there has been experimentation and acceleration of alternative ways of food production, processing, logistics , trade, and consumption.…”

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confidence: 99%

Towards agricultural innovation systems 4.0? : Supporting directionality, diversity, distribution and democracy in food systems transformation

Klerkx

2023

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Towards agricultural innovation systems 4.0?Supporting directionality, diversity, distribution and democracy in food systems transformation Esteemed Rector Magnificus, dear colleagues, students, family, and friends, As is the case with several colleagues at WUR, though increasingly less, there is a connection to agriculture through some family tie. This also holds for me. My grandfather and my grandmother ran a mixed farm in Rijkevoort, in the province of Brabant, close to the area 'De Peel', which was being converted from a peatland area to agricultural lands in the past century. Now it is known as an area with a lot of intensive animal production, with all the problems that go with it (bad smells, nitrogen emissions, animal welfare discussions). Animal production as a specialised system, and also specialised cropping systems, ran counter to my grandparents' beliefs about the value of mixed farming. In the era of post WW2 agricultural modernisation, they were not a big fan of the scale increase that came with it, and the use of artificial fertiliser and pesticides. They believed in the mixed crop-livestock systems that are again promoted today. In a sense they were circular farmers before the term was even invented.Though modern agriculture certainly has led to productivity increases, it has also led to environmental degradation. It does not guarantee a decent income for farmers. Producing more food has not given everyone better access to food. Some people still suffer from lack of food security and are undernourished. Others are tempted continuously to consume more and often highly processed foods, which means obesity is on the rise worldwide. Modern agriculture, and more broadly the food systems of which it is part, are a major driver of human induced change in the current 'Anthropocene', the geological era shaped by human kind (Willett et al., 2019). It has led Donna Haraway to state that we actually have created what could be called 'the Plantationocene', with all sorts of consequences such as loss of nature and biodiversity (Haraway, 2015). In The Netherlands, we now have

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“…Exnovatie: duurzame transities in Brussel anders voorstellen Brussels Studies , Collection générale Aangepast op basisvan Hebinck et al 2022. …”

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Exnovatie: duurzame transities in Brussel anders voorstellen

Fossati¹,

Sureau²,

Pel³

et al. 2021

brussels

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Avec le concept d’exnovation, les Sustainability Transitions studies (ST) connaissent un changement de paradigme. Leur focale typique sur les niches d’innovation durables se déplace pour éclairer désormais le revers de ces processus d’émergence : les voies de sortie des systèmes sociotechniques qui posent des problèmes de non-durabilité. Cet article introduit l’exnovation shift qui s’opère au sein des ST et illustre sa pertinence pour appréhender les enjeux de la gouvernance des transitions à Bruxelles. Sur base d’une revue de la littérature et d’une analyse exploratoire, l’article traite des limites des stratégies de transition fondées uniquement sur le soutien aux niches d’innovation, présente deux cas emblématiques qui structurent la littérature sur l’exnovation et souligne la nécessité de considérer de nouveaux domaines qui intègrent les enjeux de l’exnovation à l'échelle de la ville. Appliqué au cas bruxellois, le concept d’exnovation permet de faire une lecture systémique et critique des enjeux de la Zone de Basses Émissions.

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An actionable understanding of societal transitions: the X-curve framework

Cited by 66 publications

References 63 publications

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

Towards agricultural innovation systems 4.0? : Supporting directionality, diversity, distribution and democracy in food systems transformation

Exnovatie: duurzame transities in Brussel anders voorstellen

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