An Agent-Based Model of Burglary

Abstract

Occurrences of crime are complex phenomena. They are the result of a large number of interrelated elements which can include environmental factors as well as complex human behaviours. Traditionally, crime occurrences have been modelled using statistical techniques, and although such approaches are useful, they face difficulties in providing predictive analyses and with the integration of behavioural information. Also, it is particularly difficult to account for the strongly influential effect of local urban form. Agent-based modelling is a relatively new modelling paradigm that has generated a considerable amount of interest. An agent is an independent component of a system which interacts with other agents and its environment to achieve goals. In this manner, large systems of agents can be created to mimic real scenarios. Most importantly, the agents can incorporate behavioural information to determine how they should achieve their goals, and models can include a highly detailed environment. This paper presents an agent-based model used to predict burglary rates, which, despite its simplicity, yields interesting results. We apply the model to the city of Leeds, UK. The model indicates that the urban configuration in Leeds is a major element in determining the level of crime across the city. It also demonstrates that agent-based modelling is an excellent tool for these types of analyses with much potential.

Simulation optimization of police patrol districting plans using response surfaces

“…22 The police patrol agent-based simulation was developed based on a RepastCity prototype by Malleson and Malleson et al using Java Repast. 23,24 It modeled the stochasticity of temporal and spatial pattern of CFS incidents, patrol behaviors of police cars, different patrolling and responding speeds influenced by traffic conditions (different time of day) and road segments. The dynamic view of the agent-based model was validated by the local police department, and the evaluation of district plans is considered to be close to reality.…”

Towards victim-oriented crime modelling in a social science e-infrastructure

“…This will not only allow other researchers to make use of the simulation-allowing criminologists to simulate burglary in their local area, for example-but also provide an opportunity for policy makers and other nonacademics to test the impacts of new and existing policies on burglary before their implementation. Existing results in this area have shown promise [23].…”

“…The methodology has been applied to a wide range of subject areas, including models of crowd behaviour [19], insects [20], land use [21] and retail [22]. However, only in recent years has the methodology been applied to crime, and the model presented here is one of the most advanced in the field [23]. For examples of other agent-based crime models, the interested reader could refer to [24].…”

“…Evaluation of this model was divided into three separate tasks: verification, calibration and validation (see [23] for more details).…”

Optimising an Agent-Based Model to Explore the Behaviour of Simulated Burglars

“…Malleson et al (in press) give a full review of ABMs used to model crimes that have a predictable geographical component (that is, crimes like burglary and street theft, as opposed to crimes like domestic violence and fraud, on which geography have less obvious effects). However, notable models at the more abstract end of the scale include Winoto (2003);van Baal (2004); Brantingham and Brantingham (2004;Brantingham et al 2005a;; Dray et al (2008a), and Wang et al (2008), while more realistic models have been attempted by Liu et al (2005), Melo et al (2005), Birks (2005;2007, Birks et al 2008, 2012 Malleson et al, (2009;Malleson, 2006);Groff (2006;2007a;Groff and Mazerolle, 2008), and Malleson et al 2010a;, and on social, but not geographical realism, Hayslett-McCall et al (2008). In addition, the technique is seeing a growing use in modelling crimes where geography is secondary to social organisa-tion, e.g.…”