This paper describes a method to implement an adaptive metamodeling procedure during simulationbased design. Metamodels can be used for design space visualization and design optimization applications when model evaluation performance is critical. The proposed method uses a sequential technique to update a kriging metamodel. This sequential technique will determine the point of the metamodel's design space with the maximum mean square error and select this as the next point to use to update the metamodel. At each iteration the quality of the metamodel is assessed using a leavek-out cross-validation technique with three different values for k. The method is intended to permit continuous updating of the metamodel to investigate the entire design space without concern of finding an optimal value in the metamodel or model.
Keywords: metamodel, kriging, design of experiments, conceptual design
INTRODUCTIONResearchers at the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University are developing an advanced computing environment to support Simulation Based Design (SBD) of undersea vehicles, focusing on their conceptual design.1, 2 The approach involves composing a vehicle from a variety of subsystems, considering multiple technologies for each possible subsystem (see Figure 1), such as a maximum size and speed of operation. Our SBD method will iterate through possible subsystem designs in order to achieve the system-level requirements while satisfying all of the system constraints. These constraints can be characterized as either constraints placed on the subsystem by high-level requirements or constraints that result from the coupling of subsystems into a single system. A typical example of this is the selection of a propulsion system that has sufficient thrust to overcome the drag the vehicle experiences at its desired operating conditions.