An Alternative Co-Benefit Framework Prioritizing Health Impacts: Potential Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation Pathways through Energy Sector Fuel Substitution in South Korea

Abstract

South Korea had the highest annual average PM2.5 exposure levels in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2019, and air pollution is consistently ranked as citizens’ top environmental concern. South Korea is also one of the world’s top ten emitter countries of CO2. Co-benefit mitigation policies can address both air pollution and climate change. Utilizing an alternative co-benefit approach, which views air pollution reduction as the primary goal and climate change mitigation as secondary, this research conducts a scenario analysis to forecast the health and climate benefits of fuel substitution in South Korea’s electricity generation sector. Health benefits are calculated by avoided premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). The study finds that use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of coal over the 2022-2050 period would result in an average of 116 fewer premature deaths (1,152 YLL) and 80.8 MTCO2e fewer emissions per year. Over the same period, maintaining and maximizing the use of its nuclear energy capacity, combined with replacing coal use with LNG, would result in an average of 161 fewer premature deaths (1,608 YLL) and 123.7 MTCO2e fewer emissions per year.

Ambient Air Quality Synergies with a 2050 Carbon Neutrality Pathway in South Korea

“…There is considerable range and uncertainty regarding the conversion of tonnes of PM2.5 emissions to PM2.5 µg/m 3 exposure levels. Depending on the baseline assumptions and air pollutant dispersion model that are utilized, a significant variation exists between studies [7,[14][15][16][17][37][38][39][40][41]. The study utilizes a conservative assumption, from the lower range of each thousand tonne reduction in PM2.5 particle emissions causing a reduction in the average PM2.5 exposure level of 0.1 µg/m 3 .…”

“…The PM2.5 concentration levels in South Korea's capital Seoul are roughly double the levels of other major cities in developed countries, with an air pollution mortality rate of 20.5 per 100,000 population (age-standardized) in 2016 [13]. The continued combustion of fossil fuels will keep damaging ambient air quality, resulting in higher levels of premature deaths in the future [7,[14][15][16][17]. Older individuals are more vulnerable to the detrimental effects of low air quality.…”