An analysis of changes in flood quantiles at the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River) from 1875 to 2013

Abstract

Abstract. Within this investigation, we focus on a detailed analysis of the discharge data of the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River). The Elbe River inflows onto the North Sea. The gauge Neu Darchau is the most downstream discharge gauge of the Elbe River before it becomes an estuary. We follow the questions, whether the discharge characteristics of the Elbe River have changed over the last decades and how much common flood quantiles (i.e. 100-year flood) are affected by the latest extreme events in 2002, 2006, 2011, and 2013. Hence, we conduct (i) trend and seasonality analysis and (ii) an assessment of time-dependencies of flood quantiles by using quasi non-stationary extreme value statistics with both block maxima and peak-over-threshold approaches. The (iii) significance of the changes found in flood quantiles are assessed by using a stochastic approach based on autoregressive models and Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the trend analyses do show no clear evidences for any significant trends in daily mean discharges and increasing flood frequencies. With respect to the extreme events in 2002, 2006, 2011, and 2013 our results reveal, that those events do not lead to extraordinary changes in the 100-year floods. Nevertheless, in the majority an increase in the 100-year floods over the recent decades can be stated. Although these changes are not significant, for many time series of the 100-year flood quantiles there is a clear tendency towards the upper confidence band.

Severe floods in Nemunas River Delta

“…The Rhine River longterm data series has helped to identify the suitability of various statistical methods for accurate estimation of individual flood parameters (Thieken et al 2014;Toonen et al 2016). Studies of the flood regimes in the Danube, Oder, Vistula, Elbe and Nemunas Rivers (Cyberski et al 2006;Blöschl et al 2013;Mudersbach et al 2017;Stonevičius et al 2017) have also considerably contributed to a better understanding of the flood regimes of European rivers. These studies have identified the causes of the floods in major European rivers, as well as their duration, dates and other characteristics.…”

From iron curtain to green belt: Shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic nitrogen retention in the Elbe River over 35 years of passive restoration

“…1b, c). As neither temperature nor discharge exhibited noteworthy trends in seasonality in the Elbe during this period (Markovic et al, 2013;Mudersbach et al, 2016), we interpret this seasonality change as an indicator of a change in other driving processes, possibly in the responsible organisms. While the DIN input has a constant seasonal pattern, its magnitude and composition (share of NH4-N) changed remarkably throughout the time series (Figure 2c).…”