An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic aids

Arabatzis, Garyfallos; Klonaris, Stathis

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2009.04.002

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Bayatkashkoli et al (2008) forecasted the export and import rates of wood and wooden products, such as particleboard and plywood in Iran, using forecasting techniques of trend and regression formulations. Arabatzis and Klonaris (2009) analyzed the Greek aggregate import demand for unprocessed wood (such as logs), processed wood (such as sawn wood), veneer crafts (such as veneer sheets) and wood manufactures during the period of 1969 to 2001 using the linear approximation of quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) model. Azizi et al (2009) provided projection for consumption of particleboard, fiberboard, MDF, and plywood in Iran using the exponential smoothing model until 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Particleboard Consumption in Iran Using Univariate Time Series Models

Tavakkoli¹,

Hemmasi²,

Talaeipour³

et al. 2015

BioResources

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The performance of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average )ARIMA) model and Double and Holt-winters exponential smoothing techniques for forecasting the consumption of particleboard in Iran are compared. Annual time series data from 1978 to 2009 in the modeling process, and observations from 2010 to 2012 were used to check the accuracy of the models' forecasting performance. Also, the models' performances were calculated in terms of RMSE criterion, and the consumption of particleboard in Iran was forecasted up to the year 2017 using the most appropriate model. The results of comparing different forecast models showed that the ARMA (2,1) model yielded the lowest RMSE value compared to the other two models, which makes it more appropriate for the prediction of consumption of particleboard in Iran. Results also revealed that there might be an increasing trend in the consumption of particleboard, i.e., an average annual increasing rate calculated as 5% for particleboard. Thus, it was predicted that the consumption of particleboard would increase from 901,652 m 3 in 2012 to 1,178,320 m 3 in 2017.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Particleboard Consumption in Iran Using Univariate Time Series Models

Tavakkoli¹,

Hemmasi²,

Talaeipour³

et al. 2015

BioResources

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“…Because Greece has no capability to cover its domestic needs in wood and forest products from its own production, its dependence on importing wood and wood products is very high (Arabatzis and Klonaris 2009). In addition, these needs have increased over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A study of the Greek trade deficit in forest products. Current conditions and prospects

Koulelis

2012

For. syst.

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The forest products trade deficit in Greece is a characteristic of the national forest sector over time. Greek imports of forest products are more than exports in order to cover domestic consumption. However, since its accession to the EU in 2001 Greece has not exploited all the advantages provided by the euro. The deficit in Greece has continued to increase because of growing imports, while average Europe countries have converted this to a surplus. Greece should aim to reduce this trend by decreasing imports, increasing exports or both. The present paper describes this deficit over time and proposes a forecasting model that could reduce the deficit using three possible scenarios. The model's theoretical and practical contribution is that policymakers can use it as tool to calculate the future forest products deficit.Key words: deficit; greek timber; forecasts; forest sector; policymakers. Resumen Comunicación corta. Un estudio del déficit comercial griego en productos forestales. Condiciones actuales y perspectivasEl déficit del comercio de productos forestales en Grecia es una característica del sector forestal nacional en los últimos años. Grecia importa más productos forestales de lo que exporta para cubrir el consumo interno y esto se podría explicar por las condiciones naturales de los recursos forestales nacionales. Pero por otra parte, a partir del 2001 con la adhesión a la Comunidad Económica Europea, parece que Grecia no ha aprovechado todas las ventajas que ofrece la moneda del euro. El déficit siguió aumentando por causa de las importaciones para cubrir el consumo interno, cuando la media europea lo convertía en superávit. El objetivo principal del país es lograr presentar las tendencias decrecientes del déficit con la disminución de las importaciones y el aumento de las exportaciones o ambas cosas. En el documento se presenta el mencionado déficit a lo largo de los años y un modelo de previsión que podría reducir el déficit en el futuro, a partir de tres posibles escenarios. Los responsables políticos pueden utilizar el modelo de contribución teórica y práctica como herramienta para calcular el déficit de productos forestales futuros.Palabras

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“…There are not a lot of studies concerning wood products consumed or produced in Greece. One of them which is related to the consumption is from Arabatzis and Klonaris (2009) where the Greek wood imports and their relationship to the consumption and the national economy are analyzed. Globally, the modelling approach applies the methodology of Kangas and Baudin (2003); used in EFSOS I (UN, 2005) for providing projections of supply, demand and trade as regards processed wood products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Per Capita Demand of Wood Products in Greece: Variables with Impact to Demand and Forest Management Implications

Koulelis¹,

Daskalakou²

2017

EMSD

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The current study presents the trends of wood product trade in Greece during the last several decades. Greece, like many Mediterranean countries, is a net importer of wood and wood products and has established a consecutive dependency on imports during the past few decades. Variables like income and import prices are tested in order to highlight their meaningfulness on the demand for wood and wood products. Analysis based on multiple linear double log models showed that import prices were found to be the most important variable for wood panels and paper demand. Simultaneously, income was found to be the most important for wood fuel demand, as was expected. Income and import prices were found to be elastic regarding the demand for wood panels and paper. More, income was found to be inelastic to wood fuel demand. Further analysis of the above factors suggests a new forest policy plan based on the development of the current forest ecosystems and the creation of new forests through afforestation and reforestation, using native species in order to constrain the amount of expensive imports. From this perspective, a new forest policy based on sustainable forest management could lead to the increase of production and new

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An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic aids

Cited by 17 publications

References 34 publications

Forecasting of Particleboard Consumption in Iran Using Univariate Time Series Models

Forecasting of Particleboard Consumption in Iran Using Univariate Time Series Models

A study of the Greek trade deficit in forest products. Current conditions and prospects

Modeling Per Capita Demand of Wood Products in Greece: Variables with Impact to Demand and Forest Management Implications

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