An Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics and Causative Drivers in a Thickly Populated Yamuna River Basin of India

Abstract

Abstract. Understanding the land use and land cover (LULC) change processes is of great importance for formulating the land use policy. In the present study, Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and statistical techniques are used to understand the LULC dynamics and possible driving forces in a thickly populated Yamuna river basin of India. The National Capital Territory of Delhi, one of the world's largest urban agglomerations, occurs in this river basin. The LULC maps on 1:250,000 scales prepared at decadal interval (1985, 1995 and 2005) using satellite images are used for studying the LULC dynamics. The major LULC changes observed during the study period are increase in cropland (65.7% to 67.9%) and built-up (0.9% to 1.9%) and decrease in forest (17.1% to 16.4%) and water bodies (2.3% to 1.9%). The dominant processes of the LULC changes include transitions from forest, grassland, shrub land, water bodies and wasteland to cropland; transitions from cropland, shrub land, wasteland, grassland and forest to built-up; conversion of forest to cropland, shrub land, plantation and built-up; and transitions from water bodies to cropland, shrub land and wasteland. Most of the transitions are reversible in nature. The statistical analysis (logistic regression) between decadal LULC maps and drivers indicates that LULC changes are driven by a multitude of factors in different combinations and with different importance. Socioeconomic, demographic and proximity drivers mainly influence the LULC change processes in the study area in decreasing order of importance. The insights gained are important for simulating future LULC scenarios as input for land management policy making.