An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Byeongseong Stream's Hydrologic and Water Quality Responses Using CGCM's Future Climate Information

Abstract

For the assessment of climate change impacts for the Byeongseong stream, CGCM 3.1 T63 is selected as future climate information. The projections come from CGCM used to simulate the GHG emission scenario known as A2. Air temperature and precipitation information from the GCM simulations are converted to regional scale data using the statistical downscaling method known as MSPG. Downscaled climate data from GCM are then used as the input data for the SWAT model to generate regional runoff and water quality estimates in the Byeongseong stream. As a result of simple sensitivity analysis, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to increase water yield through reduction of evapotranspiration and increase of soil water. Hydrologic responses to climate change are in phase with precipitation change. Climate change is expected to reduce water yields in the period of 2021-2030. In the period of 2051-2060, stream flow is expected to be reduced in spring season and increased in summer season. While soil losses are also in phase with water yields, nutrient discharges (i.e., total nitrogen) are not always in phase with precipitation change. However, it should be noted that there are a lot of uncertainties in such multiple-step analysis used to convert climate information from GCM-based future climate projections into hydrologic information.

Effect of Climate Change on Fish Habitat in the Nakdong River Watershed

“…, 일반적으로 장기적인 수 온 증가는 기온 상승과 상관성이 있다고 밝혀져 있다 (Kaushal et al, 2010 (Bates et al, 2008 (Eaton and Scheller, 1996 (Joo et al, 2008 (Park et al, 2009;Lee and Kim, 2011;Choi et al 2009;Stonefelt et al, 2000;Varanou et al, 2002…”