An Analysis of the Exchange Rate Volatility in Poland using the GARCH, GJR-GARCH and EGARCH Models

Abstract

This paper employs the symmetric GARCH and the asymmetric GJR-GARCH(1,1) and E-GARCH(1,1) models to explain the dynamics of the PLN/EUR and PLN/USD exchange rates in Poland for the periods of January 2015 to July 2022. The result of our study shows that the USD rate is more susceptible to market fluctuations and events than the EUR rate. Additionally, both rates' volatility persists after a market crisis for a while, with the EUR rate taking longer until volatility subsides. Using the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion, we find the E-GARCH model to be the best model out of all three models considered.