An analysis of the outdoor recreation and wilderness situation in the United States, 1989-2040: A technical document supporting the 1989 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment

Abstract

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA), P.L. 93-378, 88 Stat. 475, as amended, directed the Secretary of Agriculture to prepare a Renewable Resources Assessment by December 31, 1975, with an update in 1979 and each loth year thereafter. This Assessment is to include "an analysis of present and anticipated uses, demand for, and supply of the renewable resources offorest, range, and other associated lands with consideration of the international resource situation, and an emphasis of pertinent supply, demand and price relationship trends" (Sec. 3 .(a)). The 1989 WA Assessment is the third prepared in response to the RPA legidation. It is composed of 12 documents, including this one. The summary Assessment document presents an overview of analyses of the present situation and the outlook for the land base, outdoor recreation and wilderness, wildlife and fish, forest-range grazing, minerals, timber, and water. Complete analyses for each of these resources are contained in seven supporting technical documents: There are also techni-USDA Forest Service General

Conceptualizing and measuring demand for recreation on national forests: a review and synthesis.

“…The second tier, which was one of the principal insights that gave rise to the development of the ROS, is noted by the authors as the more relevant element of demand for public land recreation, because, except in certain circumstances, public land agencies do not produce activities, but provide the settings for them. Indeed, activities could be viewed as an output produced by households combining privately owned recreation resources (skills, equipment) with publicly owned recreational settings (Cordell 1990). Despite this, settings have not been the focus of most recreation demand analyses.…”

“…In each of these early assessments, the objective was to estimate community-level demand functions. The 1989 assessment model estimated the quantity of trips for a given activity generated in aggregate at the regional level (Cordell 1990) as a function of regional demographics, cost per trip, average suitability of sites available to the community for that activity, and availability of substitute recreational activities.…”

“…Oregon and Washington , Cordell 1990, 1999, Cordell and McKinney 1999, Cordell and Super 2000, Cordell et al 1997, in addition to providing detailed inventories of outdoor recreation facilities and resources.…”

Outlook for outdoor recreation in the northern United States. A technical document supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project with projections through 2060

“…This approach, wherein population data are combined with individual site-level data, was suggested by Cordell and Bergstrom (1991) and used in a previous RPA assessment by Cordell et al (1990) climate data (Joyce et al, in press), countylevel land use data (Wear 2011), and recreation supply data were created based on 6-year moving averages and arbitrary distances from county centroids. Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in spring in the resident county tmax_spring_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in spring for the resident county and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid tmax_summer Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer in the resident county tmax_summer_d50 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident county and counties within 50 miles of resident county centroid tmax_summer_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident county and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid tmax_summer_d200 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident county and counties within 200 miles of resident county centroid tmax_winter Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in winter in the resident county tmax_winter_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in winter for the resident county and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid tmin_leq_0…”

“…Walsh et al 1992) and for previous RPA assessments (Bowker et al 1999, Bowker et al 2012, Hof and Kaiser 1983b. Researchers also have used alternative approaches-combining population data with individual site-level data or county-level data-to project national or regional recreation demand (Bowker et al 2006, Cordell and Bergstrom 1991, Cordell et al 1990, Englin and Shonkwiler 1995, English et al 1993, Poudyal et al 2008.…”