An analytical study on the likely causes of the minor bubbles in the Baltic dry index

Analyzing the impact of container shipping service reliability on global supply chain pressure: An asymmetric approach

“…The microeconomic factors discovered in the literature can be listed as age of the ship (Alizadeh and Talley, 2011), size of the ship (Kavussanos, 2003), speed of the ship (Beenstock and Vergottis, 1989;Magirou et al, 2015), characteristics of buyers and sellers (Adland et al, 2016), open registries (Wilmsmeier and Martinez-Zarzoso, 2010), and bunker price (Shen and Chou, 2015;Yin et al, 2017). On the other hand, the macroeconomic and some other factors discovered in the literature can be listed as oil price (Shi et al, 2022), fleet size (Xu et al, 2011), industrial production (Strandenes, 1984), connectivity to transportation network (Wilmsmeier and Hoffmann, 2008), exchange rates (Chi, 2016), commodity prices (Bandyopadhyay and Rajib, 2023), inflation (Michail et al, 2022), GDP (Başer and Açık, 2019), port efficiency (Lei and Bachmann, 2020), port closures (Lewis et al, 2006), market sentiment (Bai et al, 2021), weather conditions (Açık and Başer, 2018), and pandemics (Xu et al, 2022). Any factor that affects freight will naturally be reflected in the GSCPI value, but modeling all these factors is relatively difficult.…”

Agent based interaction of commodity price and freight market

“…In a study carried out in order to determine the price bubbles in the dry bulk freight market through Baltic Dry Index and possible factors causing these price bubbles, we determined several events causing minor deviations from the actual price and categorised these events into the factors (Açık and Başer, 2018a). Firstly, the generalised sup augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test was determined using 1550 daily data covering the January 2012 and May 2018 period.…”

“…Considering that commodities' prices also carry information about their supply and demand, there may be an interaction between commodity prices and freight markets. This possible interaction has also been studied in the maritime economics literature, and significant results have been achieved (Kavussanos et al, 2010;Kavussanos et al, 2014;Chou et al, 2015;Tsioumas and Papadimitriou, 2018;Açık and Başer, 2018a;Açık and Başer, 2018b;Açık and İnce, 2019;Açık and Başer, 2019;Başer and Açık, 2019;Açık and Başer, 2020;Angelopoulos et al, 2020). In these studies, interactions in derivative markets and over past prices were examined.…”

Analyzing the Impact of Interest Rate on Dry Bulk Freight Market with Time-Varying Causality Method

“…In our study, we turned to this approach since we thought that the effect of interest rates on the freight market cannot exist for the whole sample. The main reason for this is that many external factors affect freight rates such as world gross domestic product (Başer and Açık, 2019), industrial production (Strandenes, 1984), bunker price (Açık and Ayaz, 2018;Poulakidas and Joutz, 2009;Shen and Chou, 2015;Yin, Luo and Fan, 2017), secondhand value (Açık and İnce, 2019), fleet size (Karakitsos and Varnavides, 2014, p. 212), laid-up tonnage (Zannetos, 1966), and climatic, cultural, operational factors (Açık and Başer, 2018). It is almost impossible to include all these factors in a single model.…”

“…This situation may be due to the nonlinearity of the relationship, not because there is no relationship between the variables. Additionally, since the BDI variable presents transportation costs as an indicator, it is also affected by factors such as oil prices, climatic events, cultural events, political events (Açık and Başer, 2018). This structure may be the main reason why a linear relationship cannot be determined.…”