An anomalous atmospheric river linked to the late June 2021 western North America heatwave

Mo, Ruping; Lin, Hai

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1125330/v1

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…2 of 12 injected a large amount of moisture into western Canada and the PNW. The accumulation of water vapor under the high pressure of the atmospheric blocking pattern may have formed a positive feedback loop that further enhanced the heatwave (Lin et al, 2022;Mo et al, 2022). These two weather patterns were also superimposed on dry soil conditions, as 50% of Washington state and 70% of Oregon were in severe drought conditions in June 2021 (droughtmonitor.uni.edu).…”

Section: 1029/2022gl099396mentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

Bercos‐Hickey

O’Brien

Wehner

et al. 2022

Preprint

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On 26-29 June 2021, an unprecedented heatwave affected the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States and western Canada. Temperature records were shattered, with all-time highs of 116°F (47°C) in Portland, Oregon, 108°F (42°C) in Seattle, Washington, and 121°F (49°C) in Lytton, British Columbia (Di Liberto, 2021). Heatwaves, characterized by prolonged periods of excessive heat, can have dangerous impacts on human health, infrastructure, and the environment (Campbell et al., 2018;McEvoy et al., 2009;Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Alexander, 2013;Ruffault et al., 2020), and the PNW heatwave was no exception. Over 500 deaths were attributed to the heatwave (Popovich & Choi-Schagrin, 2021), and the environment and infrastructure throughout the affected region were strained and damaged, with crops ruined and roads buckled due to the excessively hot temperatures (Baker & Sergio, 2021). The devastating and large-scale impacts of the PNW heatwave were exacerbated by the lack of adaptability of a region unaccustomed to such extreme high temperatures, with the observational record suggesting that this was a highly anomalous event (Figure 1).The meteorological conditions of the PNW heatwave were similar to previous deadly heatwaves in Europe and Russia (Black et al., 2004;Dole et al., 2011). These events are associated with atmospheric blocking patterns, which are known to cause extreme heatwaves (

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Section: 1029/2022gl099396mentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

Bercos‐Hickey

O’Brien

Wehner

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Additionally, an anomalous warm‐season atmospheric river (AR) made landfall over the Alaska panhandle in late June and injected a large amount of moisture into western Canada and the PNW. The accumulation of water vapor under the high pressure of the atmospheric blocking pattern may have formed a positive feedback loop that further enhanced the heatwave (Lin et al., 2022; Mo et al., 2022). These two weather patterns were also superimposed on dry soil conditions, as 50% of Washington state and 70% of Oregon were in severe drought conditions in June 2021 (http://droughtmonitor.uni.edu).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Bercos‐Hickey

O’Brien

Wehner

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

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An anomalous atmospheric river linked to the late June 2021 western North America heatwave

Cited by 2 publications

References 32 publications

Anthropogenic contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

Anthropogenic contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

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