An application of the Bayesian network model based on the EN-ESL-GA algorithm: Exploring the predictors of heart disease in middle-aged and elderly people in China

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The morbidity and mortality of heart disease are increasing in middle-aged and elderly people in China. It is necessary to explore relationships and interactive associations between heart disease and its risk factors in order to prevent heart disease. OBJECTIVE: To establish a Bayesian network model of heart disease and its influencing factors in middle-aged and elderly people in China, and explore the applicability of the elite-based structure learner using genetic algorithm based on ensemble learning (EN-ESL-GA) algorithm in etiology analysis and disease prediction. METHODS: Based on the 2013 national tracking survey data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database, EN-ESL-GA algorithm was used to learn the Bayesian network structure. Then we input the data and the learned network structure into the Netica software for parameter learning and inference analysis. RESULTS: The Bayesian network model based on the EN-ESL-GAalgorithm can effectively excavate the complex network relationships and interactive associations between heart disease and its risk factors in middle-aged and elderly people in China. CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian network model based on the EN-ESL-GA algorithm has good applicability and application prospect in the prediction of diseases prevalence risk.