An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

Abstract

Recently, the study of the coherent noise model has led to a simple (binary) prediction algorithm for the forthcoming earthquake magnitude in aftershock sequences. This algorithm is based on the concept of natural time and exploits the complexity exhibited by the coherent noise model. Here, using the relocated catalogue from Southern California Seismic Network for 1981 to June 2011, we evaluate the application of this algorithm for the aftershocks of strong earthquakes of magnitudeM≥6. The study is also extended by using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalogue to the case of the six strongest earthquakes in the Earth during the last almost forty years. The predictor time series exhibits the ubiquitous1/fnoise behavior.

Detrended fluctuation analysis of seismicity and order parameter fluctuations before the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

“…1. Following our previous work (Christopoulos and Sarlis, 2017), we focused in the analysis of seismicity within the geographic polygon shown in Fig. 1 of Hauksson et al (2012) that covers the Southern California Seismic Network reporting area for local events that is depicted by the green line in Fig.…”

Statistical Significance of Earth’s Electric and Magnetic Field Variations Preceding Earthquakes in Greece and Japan Revisited

“…ROC analysis is a modern technique [ 48 ] that depicts the trade off between hit rates and false alarm rates in a conceptually simple way. It has been recently applied [ 35 , 60 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , 67 ] for estimating the predictability of various complex systems and as such it might be useful and complementary to ECA, which was mentioned in the previous subsection.…”

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

“…NTA has found applications in a wide variety of fields ranging from cardiology (see, e.g., [12][13][14][15]) to statistical physics (see, e.g., [16][17][18][19][20][21]), and atmospheric science (see, e.g., [22][23][24]). One of the main applications of NTA, however, is the study of the physics of EQs (see, e.g., [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]). In addition, natural time is considered as the basis of the "nowcasting earthquakes" methodology that has been introduced recently [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46].…”