An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the <scp>North‐West</scp> Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Banerjee, Debangshu; Singh, Charu

doi:10.1002/joc.7368

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 108 publications

(120 reference statements)

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“…In Exp02, the temperature of the whole atmosphere increased (Figure 8a); however, in Exp03, the temperature only increased in the lower atmosphere (Figure 8b). Banerjee and Singh [44] also drew the cross sections of the differences (SSP5-8.5 minus Historical) in temperature, and the results indicated that the temperature increased in the whole atmosphere, which was consistent with our conclusion. Therefore, we thought that the warming-induced increases (Exp02 minus Exp01) in the temperature of the whole atmosphere were reasonable.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Therefore, the warming in Exp03 was only driven by decreasing surface upward longwave radiation, and then the temperature only increased in the lower atmosphere (discussed later). Based on the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the future temperature increased in the whole atmosphere [44], which was consistent with our conclusion in Exp02 (Figure 8a). In this study, the whole atmosphere referred to 0-12km and mainly located in troposphere.…”

Section: The Warming Experiments By Increasing Surface Energysupporting

confidence: 90%

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Regional Climate Effects of Irrigation under Central Asia Warming by 2.0 °C

Zheng

2023

Remote Sensing

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There has been a severe shortage of water resources in Central Asia and agriculture has been highly dependent on irrigation because of the scarce precipitation in the croplands. Central Asia is also experiencing climate warming in the context of global warming; however, few studies have focused on changes in the amount of irrigation in Central Asia under future climate warming and their regional climate effects. In this study, we adopted the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to design three types of experiments: historical experiments (Exp01); warming experiments using future driving fields (Exp02); and warming experiments that involved increasing the surface energy (Exp03). In each type of experiment, two experiments (considering and not considering irrigation) were carried out. We analyzed the regional climate effects of irrigation under the warming of Central Asia by 2.0 °C through determining the differences between the two types of warming experiments and the historical experiments. For surface variables (irrigation amount; sensible heat flux; latent heat flux; and surface air temperature), the changes (relative to Exp01) in Exp03 were thought to be reasonable. For precipitation, the changes (relative to Exp01) in Exp02 were thought to be reasonable. The main conclusions were as follows: in Central Asia, after warming by 2.0 °C, the irrigation amount increased by 10–20%; in the irrigated croplands of Central Asia, the irrigation-caused increases (decreases) in latent heat flux (sensible heat flux) further expanded; and then the irrigation-caused decreases in surface air temperature also became enhanced; during the irrigation period, the irrigation-caused increases in precipitation in the mid-latitude mountainous areas were reduced. This study also showed that, in the WRF model, the warming experiments caused by driving fields were not suitable to simulate the changes in irrigation amount affected by climate warming.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: The Warming Experiments By Increasing Surface Energysupporting

confidence: 90%

Regional Climate Effects of Irrigation under Central Asia Warming by 2.0 °C

Zheng

2023

Remote Sensing

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“…Studies based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 model output have agreed that higher elevations are very likely to receive significantly more precipitation in a warmer climate, with insignificant drying in the foothills, and increased rainfall over the northern Indian plains (Almazroui et al, 2020;Banerjee and Singh, 2022). Banerjee and Singh (2022) also found a shift in precipitation seasonality, with the peak snowfall month moving from February to March by the end of the 21st century.…”

Section: Changing Impactsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Hunt,

Baudouin,

Turner

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale weather systems embedded within the subtropical westerly jet. Manifesting as upper-level troughs often associated with a lower-tropospheric low over Western India, they share some dynamical features with extratropical cyclones. WDs are most common during the boreal winter (December to March), during which they bring the majority of precipitation – both rain and snow – to the Western Himalaya, as well as to surrounding areas of north India, Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. WDs are also associated with weather hazards such as heavy snowfall, hailstorms, fog, cloudbursts, avalanches, frost, and coldwaves. In this paper, we review the recent understanding and development on WDs. Recent studies have collectively made use of novel data, novel analysis techniques, and the increasing availability of high-resolution weather and climate models. This review is separated into six main sections – structure and thermodynamics, precipitation and impacts, teleconnections, modelling experiments, forecasting at a range of scales, and paleoclimate and climate change – each motivated with a brief discussion of the accomplishments and limitations of previous research. A number of step changes in understanding are synthesised. Use of new modelling frameworks and tracking algorithms has significantly improved knowledge of WD structure and variability, and a more frequentist approach can now be taken. Improved observation systems have helped quantification of water security over the Western Himalaya. Convection-permitting models have improved our understanding of how WDs interact with the Himalayas to trigger natural hazards. Improvements in paleoclimate and future climate modelling experiments have helped to explain how WDs and their impacts over the Himalaya respond to large-scale natural and anthropogenic forcings. We end by summarising unresolved questions and outlining key future WD research topics.

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“…The variables are ensemble members of ‘atmospheric realm ’, the parent variant label is ‘ r1i1p1f1 ’ and the parent experiment ids are ‘ piControl ’. Another criterion for the selection of the models is the observations and recommendations of the previous research works (Banerjee and Singh, 2021; Kundu et al, 2021; Kundu & Singh, 2020; Menon et al, 2013; Sabeerali et al, 2012; Singh et al, 2017; Singh et al 2018a; Singh et al, 2018b; Singh, 2023). Table 1 illustrates the description of the 12 CMIP6 models selected for the study.…”

Section: Datasets Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP6 models

Saha,

Singh

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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The present research is aimed at evaluating the climate coupled models with respect to the observational datasets for the investigation of the characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The monthly averaged historical simulations from 12 coupled climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are compared with the ground based observational data, satellite and reanalysis datasets for the study period of 1980–2014. This study uses these high‐resolution models to investigate monsoon features, onset and withdrawal dates, primarily focusing on individual model performances rather than highly documented multi‐model mean performance. Performance evaluation of the models suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) simulations by the models are in better agreement for the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis data sets. Further, inter‐model differences amongst the CMIP6 models in estimating the spatial distribution of various monsoon system variables during pre‐monsoon and monsoon seasons are noted which may be attributed to the different model components and varying physics configuration, nonetheless, models like NESM3 and INM‐CN5 are able to reproduce ISM pattern reasonably well. The annual precipitation cycle demonstrates a good agreement between most climate models and IMD data. Evolution of tropospheric temperature gradient (ΔTT) estimated from the CMIP6 models mimics the temporal pattern of the annual rainfall and therefore, is used to estimate the onset and withdrawal dates from CMIP6 models; however, high variability is noted amongst the CMIP6 models in retrieving the onset and withdrawal dates when compared with the IMD observations. Most of the models show a shorter rainy season except NorESM2‐MM. Overall our results suggest that the CMIP6 models can be used for the seasonal mean evaluation of monsoon system parameters and process‐based studies to improve our present understanding of the ISM system.

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An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Cited by 9 publications

References 108 publications

Regional Climate Effects of Irrigation under Central Asia Warming by 2.0 °C

Regional Climate Effects of Irrigation under Central Asia Warming by 2.0 °C

Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments

Evaluation of the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP6 models

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