An approach to impact assessments of buildings in a changing climate

Abstract

Future climate change caused by global warming could have dramatic consequences for the built environment. An approach is presented to understand and assess these impacts on the Norwegian building stock in a changing climate. The approach is tested using calculations for the decay potential in timber structures (possessing wood cladding, timber frames or both). First, building data and climate data are compiled in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Second, the computer model calculates the number of buildings that could be affected by a particular climate parameter for historical climate data ) and a future climate scenario (2071-2100). The results show that today approximately 615 000 buildings are situated in areas with a high potential risk of rot-decay. In 2100 this number could increase to roughly 2.4 million. The large current amount of wooden buildings and a high number of building defects indicates that future new and refurbished buildings need to be built more robustly to meet the future impacts of climate change. Other climate parameters, e.g. sea level rise, changes in permafrost, the risk of frost decay, temperature change and changes in the amount of wet winter precipitation -are under investigation for their effect on the Norwegian building stock.Les changements climatiques futurs causés par le réchauffement planétaire pourraient avoir des conséquences dramatiques sur l'environnement bâ ti. Il est présenté une approche visant à comprendre et évaluer ces impacts sur le parc bâ ti norvégien sous un climat en évolution. Cette approche est testée en utilisant des calculs relatifs aux possibilités de pourrissement des structures en bois de construction (possédant des bardages en bois, des ossatures bois, voire les deux). Dans un premier temps, les données relatives aux bâ timents et les données relatives aux climats sont compilées dans un Système d'Information Géographique (SIG). Dans un second temps, le modèle informatique calcule le nombre de bâ timents qui pourraient être affectés par un paramètre climatique particulier dans le cadre des données climatiques historiques et d'un scénario climatique futur (2071-2100). Les résultats montrent Downloaded by [Queensland University of Technology] at 12:57 13 October 2014qu'aujourd'hui environ 615 000 bâ timents se situent dans des régions présentant un risque potentiel élevé de pourrissement. En 2100, ce nombre pourrait s'accroître jusqu'à atteindre environ 2,4 millions. La grande quantité actuelle de bâ timents en bois et un nombre élevé de défauts de construction indiquent qu'il faudrait que les futurs bâ timents neufs et rénovés soient construits de manière plus solide afin de répondre aux impacts futurs du changement climatique. D'autres paramètres climatiques -tels que par exemple l'élévation du niveau de la mer, les modifications du permafrost, le risque de pourrissement par le gel, les changements de température et les changements dans la quantité de précipitations des hivers humides -sont étudiés sous l'angle de leur effet sur le parc bâ ti norvé...

Assessment of climate vulnerability in the Norwegian built environment

“…A comparison of present and future risk of frost decay shows shoreline. A more thorough description of the method is described in Almås et al (2011).…”

“…Approximately 300 000 buildings (8 %) were unclassified due to these two errors, mostly due to the problem of missing the shoreline. A more thorough description of the method is described in Almås et al (2011). …”

The durability of building materials under a changing climate

“…In the case of UK housing a service life of at least 50 years is typically assumed, although we have many older buildings than this and it has been argued that much of the housing stock will need to last a century or more . The comparability of timescales for climate change and the projected life of buildings means that in future there will be a risk of significant climatic performance problems for buildings that are currently problem free . As the climate changes, we may need to start considering how this may impact on the service life of structures .…”

Resilience to increasing temperatures: residential building stock adaptation through codes and standards

“…Building codes and standards based on appropriate climatic zoning may serve a valuable role. As suggested by Lisø et al (2006), Lisø et al (2007) and Almås et al (2011), Geographical Information System (GIS) can be a useful tool for that purpose. The appropriate climate zone for each locality should be determined based its own climatic records.…”