An Approach Towards Deterministic Landslide Hazard Analysis in Gis. A Case Study From Manizales (Colombia)

Westen, C.J. van; Terlien, M.T.J.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1096-9837(199609)21:9<853::aid-esp676>3.0.co;2-c

Cited by 179 publications

(55 citation statements)

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“…Under the probabilistic approach, the probability distributions of geotechnical parameters are generally considered normal (e.g. Melchiorre and Frattini ; Pathak and Nilsen ; Refice and Capolongo ; van Westen and Terlien ; Zhou et al ), uniform (Hammond et al ) or empirically achieved by direct measurements (Park et al ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Cislaghi

Chiaradia

Bischetti

2017

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Forests play a significant role in protecting people, settlements in mountainous terrains from hydrogeomorphic hazards, including shallow landslides. Although several studies have investigated the interactions between forests and slope instabilities, a full understanding of them has not yet been obtained. Additionally, models that incorporate forest stand properties into slope failure probability analyses have not been developed. In principle, physical-based models, which are powerful tools for landslide hazard analyses, represent an appropriate approach to linking stand properties and slope stability. However, the reliability of these models depends on numerous parameters that describe highly complex geotechnical and hydrological processes (e.g. potential failure depth, saturation ratio, root reinforcement, etc.) that are difficult to measure and model. In particular, the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement remains a problem, and the use of physically based models from a forest management perspective has been limited.This paper presents a procedure for assessing slope stability in terms of the Factor of Safety that accounts for forest stand characteristics such as tree density, average diameter at breast height and minimum distance between trees. The procedure combines a three-dimensional (3D) slope stability model with an evaluation of the variability of root reinforcement in terms of a probability distribution, according to forest characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the residual uncertainties in both stand characteristics and 3D stability model parameters.The proposed method was applied in a subalpine catchment in the Italian Alps, mainly covered by coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and high landslide risk. The results suggest that the procedure is highly reliable, according to landslide inventory maps [area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.82 and modified success rate (MSR) is 0.70]. Thus, it represents a promising tool for studying the role of root reinforcement in landslide hazard mapping and guiding forest management from a slope stability perspective.A 3D approach to hillslope stability modelling was selected to overcome the limitations of infinite slope analysis and to 1790 A. CISLAGHI ET AL.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Cislaghi

Chiaradia

Bischetti

2017

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…Es handelt sich um einen Ansatz, der auch in Entwicklungsländern eingesetzt werden könnte, da dort die Schadensbilder aufgrund der ungenü-susceptibility. By means of sensitivity analyses, the influence of earthquake activity and heavy precipitation on the stability of the slopes was analysed on a regional scale [4] [5]. The results of these GIS analyses contain areal information from which a hazard potential can be derived.…”

Section: Early Warning Against the Background Of The Risk Cycleunclassified

Entwicklung eines Frühwarnsystems für Rutschungen in den tropischen Anden (Medellín, Kolumbien)

Thuro

Singer

Menschik

et al. 2020

Geomechanics and Tunnelling

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The Inform@Risk project aims to develop a cost‐effective but sufficiently accurate, easy‐to‐maintain early warning system (EWS) for informal settlements on the margins of large cities, adapted to tropical climatic conditions in South American mountain regions. This EWS will be implemented on the outskirts of the Bello Oriente district in Medellín. The area is characterized by an elevation of around 2,000 m, a medium slope inclination of 20° to 30° and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, which are particularly sensitive to shallow landslides during heavy precipitation. In addition to the development of a geo‐sensor network with complex data integration and real‐time evaluation, the main focus of the project is the social integration of the EWS both with the municipal authorities, which are going to take over the system after completion of the three‐year project, and with the population living in the settlement. This report describes the project and the specifications of the EWS and presents first results from the field work.

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“…For example, the Stability Index Mapping model [ Pack et al , ] and the Shallow Landsliding Stability Model [ Dietrich and Montgomery , ] combine steady state shallow subsurface flow with the infinite slope equation. Coupling a time‐dependent or quasi‐time‐dependent shallow groundwater flow model with the infinite slope equation allows assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of rainfall‐induced landslides [ Arnone et al , ; Burton and Bathurst , ; Casadei et al , ; Malet et al , ; Sidle , ; van Beek , ; van Westen and Terlien , ; Wu and Sidle , ]. To assess the effects of pore pressure on timing, rates, and locations of landslides, Iverson [] developed a model that couples transient infiltration with infinite slope stability analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of hydromechanical loading history and antecedent soil mechanical damage on shallow landslide triggering

Fan

Lehmann

2015

JGR Earth Surface

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Evidence suggests that the sudden triggering of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides is preceded by accumulation of local internal failures in the soil mantle before their abrupt coalescence into a landslide failure plane. The mechanical status of a hillslope at any given time reflects competition between local damage accumulated during antecedent rainfall events and rates of mechanical healing (e.g., rebonding of microcracks and root regrowth). This dynamic interplay between damage accumulation and healing rates determines the initial mechanical state for landslide modeling. We evaluated the roles of these dynamic processes on landslide characteristics and patterns using a hydromechanical landslide‐triggering model for a sequence of rainfall scenarios. The progressive nature of soil failure was represented by the fiber bundle model formalism that considers threshold strength of mechanical bonds linking adjacent soil columns and bedrock. The antecedent damage induced by prior rainfall events was expressed by the fraction of broken fibers that gradually regain strength or mechanically heal at rates specific to soil and roots. Results indicate that antecedent damage accelerates landslide initiation relative to pristine (undamaged) hillslopes. The volumes of first triggered landslides increase with increasing antecedent damage; however, for heavily damaged hillslopes, landslide volumes tend to decrease. Elapsed time between rainfall events allows mechanical healing that reduces the effects of antecedent damage. This study proposed a quantitative framework for systematically incorporating hydromechanical loading history and information on precursor events (e.g., such as recorded by acoustic emissions) into shallow landslide hazard assessment.

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An Approach Towards Deterministic Landslide Hazard Analysis in Gis. A Case Study From Manizales (Colombia)

Cited by 179 publications

References 1 publication

Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Entwicklung eines Frühwarnsystems für Rutschungen in den tropischen Anden (Medellín, Kolumbien)

Effects of hydromechanical loading history and antecedent soil mechanical damage on shallow landslide triggering

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