An assessment of climate change impacts on water sufficiency: The case of Extended East Rapti watershed, Nepal

Ray, Anupama; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Thapa, Bhesh Raj

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.113434

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Bias corrected nine RCMs using QM under two RCP scenarios (8.5 and 4.5) recommended by (Ray et al, 2022) were used to project future climate for the study basin. The projected data was input to the RR model to generate future daily discharge which was used in the hydraulic model simulation to generate inundation maps.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An artificial neural network‐hydrodynamic coupled modeling approach to assess the impacts of floods under changing climate in the East Rapti Watershed, Nepal

Bhattarai

Pandey

et al. 2022

J Flood Risk Management

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Recurring floods have devastating consequences on the East Rapti Watershed (ERW), but effective mitigation/adaptation measures are lacking. This article aims at establishing a rainfall-runoff (RR) relationship; estimating depth and extent of inundation under climate change scenarios; assessing impacts on the socio-economy; and identifying and evaluating adaptation strategies in the ERW. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to generate peak flows which were then entered into a hydraulic model to simulate inundation. Results were validated with field survey. The calibrated and validated RR and hydraulic models were fed with projected future climate (2021-2050) derived from multiple regional-climate-models to assess the changes in inundation. Results showed the peak discharge likely exceeds 10,500 m 3 /s at the ERW outlet in the extreme future flood scenario with corresponding inundation of 80 km 2 and up to a depth of 11 m sweeping away over 1000 houses and 19 km 2 of agricultural land in the critical areas. Constructing a 17 km long embankment in the critical areas along the right bank of the East Rapti River could reduce the flood spread by 35%, safeguarding 78% of the houses and saving 51% agricultural land compared with the scenarios without the embankment. K E Y W O R D S adaptation strategies, ANN, climate change, East Rapti Watershed, flood modelling, HEC-RAS | INTRODUCTIONFlood, a major natural disaster across the globe, accounted for 44% of all disaster events during 2000-2019 worldwide (UNDRR, 2020). About 41% of the total flood events during the period was observed in Asia alone impacting 1.5 billion people. Climate change (CC) is further exacerbating extreme events such as floods and exposing more population and property at risk (Fahad & Wang, 2019). Nepal ranks 30th in terms of vulnerability to flood risk, the problem being more prominent in the flat southern plains (UNDP, 2021).Flood modelling and hazard mapping are wellestablished methods for effectively assessing associated

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%