An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity

Sverdrup, Harald; Ragnarsdottir, KV; Koca, Deniz

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.085

Cited by 130 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…At present, the global average copper ore grades for copper mines is approximately 0.62% of Cu content [17] and this number is expected to decrease as mines with higher ore grades become exhausted [17][18][19]. Starting from this information, the concern over the future availability of copper is on the rise, and several studies have focused on estimating the global copper peak production using Hubbert's model, which has been estimated to be between 8 and 40 years from now [16,[20][21][22][23][24].…”

Section: Coppermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the United States Geological Survey, there are 89 million tonnes of reserves and more than 2 billion tonnes of resources for the case of lead and 200 million tonnes of reserves and 1.9 billion tonnes of identified resources for the case of zinc. Meanwhile, other studies estimate that the extractable reserves are 2.3 and 2.6 billion tonnes for lead and zinc respectively [22]. Although there are no data available on global average mined ore grades for zinc mines, the average ore grade in the mine (x m ) estimated by Cox and Singer [29] is 6.05% Pb + Zn.…”

Section: Lead-zincmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Mining industry requires high amounts of energy to extract and process resources, including a variety of concentration and refining processes. Using energy consumption information, different sustainability issues can be addressed, such as the relationship with ore grade over the years, energy variations in electricity or fossil fuel use. A rigorous analysis and understanding of the energy intensity use in mining is the first step towards a more sustainable mining industry and, globally, better resource management. Numerous studies have focused on the energy consumption of mining projects, with analysis carried out primarily in one single country or one single region. This paper quantifies, on a global level, the relationship between ore grade and energy intensity. With the case of copper, the study has shown that the average copper ore grade is decreasing over time, while the energy consumption and the total material production in the mine increases. Analyzing only copper mines, the average ore grade has decreased approximately by 25% in just ten years. In that same period, the total energy consumption has increased at a higher rate than production (46% energy increase over 30% production increase).

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Section: Coppermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lead-zincmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?

et al. 2016

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“…The majority (73.1%) stems from gold ores (coupled production). The corresponding annual direct input for gold only amounts to 11.6 tons of gold, which is 0.5% of the global gold production in 2012 [58], and only 0.4% of the mined gold supply in 2015 [59].…”

Section: Metal Ore Demand By Metal Typementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 8 lists the direct metal input results in the study for copper, gold and lithium. It compares them to maximum global production rates in Sverdrup et al (2017) [58]. Even without considering the uncertainty of the scenario and LCI data, possible technological development as well as higher recycling and more efficient extraction rates, most additional demands for metals are not critical from the perspective of supply.…”

Section: Metal Ore Demand For Drive Trainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metals for Fuels? The Raw Material Shift by Energy-Efficient Transport Systems in Europe

2018

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Abstract:The long-term transition towards a low-carbon transport sector is a key strategy in Europe. This includes the replacement of fossil fuels, modal shifts towards public transport as well as higher energy efficiency in the transport sector overall. While these energy savings are likely to reduce the direct greenhouse gas emissions of transport, they also require the production of new and different vehicles. This study analyses in detail whether final energy savings in the transport sector also induce savings for material resources from nature if the production of future vehicles is considered. The results for 28 member states in 2030 indicate that energy efficiency in the transport sector leads to lower carbon emissions as well as resource use savings. However, energy-efficient transport sectors can have a significant impact on the demand for metals in Europe. An additional annual demand for 28.4 Mt of metal ores was calculated from the personal transport sector in 2030 alone. The additional metal ores from semiprecious metals (e.g., copper) amount to 12.0 Mt, from precious metals (e.g., gold) to 9.1 Mt and from other metals (e.g., lithium) to 11.7 Mt, with small savings for ferrous metal ores (−4.6 Mt).

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“…For instance, in a modelled forecast of contemporary production against future demand and supply of different metals, it was shown that copper, zinc and nickel would become scarce within the next 40 years. In addition, the energy intensity and financial costs of extracting aluminum and copper will become uneconomical and environmentally unsustainable over the same timescale [10]. Various efforts have been made over several decades to reduce the negative environmental impacts of economic activity [11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Mixes to Achieve Absolute Decoupling: An Ex Ante Assessment

et al. 2016

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Abstract:One approach to reducing the environmental costs of economic activity is to design and implement policies that aim at decoupling economic activity from its environmental impacts. Such a decoupling requires an economy-wide approach to policy-making, through broad mixes of policy instruments that create the right framework conditions for decoupling, and which provide coherent and consistent signals to resource-using sectors of the economy. This article summarizes the ex ante qualitative environmental assessment of three policy mixes (over-arching, metals, and land use) developed within the DYNAMIX project, highlighting their potential impacts on raw material extraction, greenhouse gas emissions, land use, freshwater use, and biodiversity (parallel assessments addressed economic and social impacts, and governance issues). Whilst the environmental assessments largely identified positive impacts, some policies had potential for minor negative impacts. The key challenges for undertaking such an assessment are identified (including uncertainty, baseline accuracy, the differing nature and scope of policies, policy flexibility, and the challenges of implementing volume control policies). Finally, some conclusions and lessons for policy-makers are presented, to contribute to the development of future policies and improve the reliability of future environmental assessments of policy mixes.

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An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity

Cited by 130 publications

References 45 publications

Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?

Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?

Metals for Fuels? The Raw Material Shift by Energy-Efficient Transport Systems in Europe

Policy Mixes to Achieve Absolute Decoupling: An Ex Ante Assessment

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