Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment. 35 stringent national and international legislation to reduce carbon emissions have the potential to result in higher liabilities for companies involved in the fossil fuels exploration and production business and consequently this can drive the need for technology solutions that reduce such emissions.In addition to contributing to new product development, technology forecasting can provide companies with the evidence to make strategic decisions in regard to the development of technical capabilities and this includes the prioritisation of internal R&D activities as well as external investments with research suppliers. Other organisations, such as governmental agencies, research foundations and charitable bodies may use technology forecasting to support research investments in areas that have societal benefits, for example, research on developing improved algorithms for cyber-security applications.
Literature review on technology forecastingIn order to identify the emerging requirements for technology management that lie ahead and principally over the next 5-10 years, it is useful to first consider the approaches that are currently used to forecast technologies themselves. This is because future technology management issues are likely to be related to the corresponding technologies under development in the future. In terms of the current practice for forecasting technologies, there are a number of different processes that are in use. Requirements capture (Cooper et al., 1998) and subsequent analysis can be undertaken for any given field of interest, for example, the capture of the industrial requirements for new or improved structural aerospace materials, such as metal-matrix composites. Requirements engineering through a scenario-based software tool has been previously reported and this method is based on the initial acquisition and modelling of a use case (Sutcliffe et al., 1998). Comparison of the use case with a collection of abstract models corresponding to different application classes is carried ...