An Early Warning Influenza Model using Alberta Real- Time Syndromic Data (ARTSSN)

Smetanin, Paul; Biel, Rita; Stiff, David; McNeil, D. S.; Svenson, Lawrence W.; Usman, Hussain R.; Meurer, David P.; Huang, Jane; Nardelli, Vanessa; Sikora, Christopher; Talbot, James

doi:10.5210/ojphi.v7i1.5719

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…While we are not discounting the use of Australian influenza surveillance data, the data should be treated the same way as surveillance data obtained from any other country and used together as global intelligence to inform influenza trends and activity that could occur in Canada. Timely and robust national and sub-national surveillance data is a great asset in aiding the development of within-season predictions that can provide lead time and inform within-season resource and capacity planning, as well as mitigation measures (( 36 )).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the Australian influenza season predict the Canadian influenza season? A qualitative comparison of seasons, 2014–2020

Chan,

Lee,

Bancej

2023

CCDR

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A commonly held belief by the Canadian media and public is that the Australian influenza season is a fairly reliable indicator of what the Canadian influenza season that follows might be like. However, this claim is not well substantiated with epidemiological evidence. Therefore, the objective of this work was to qualitatively compare the timing of the onset, peak, and intensity of influenza activity, the dominant circulating influenza strains, and the seasonal vaccine and vaccination policies from 2014 to 2020 between Canada and Australia, using a combination of FluNet data and influenza surveillance reports and publications. Across the epidemiological indicators considered, the epidemics between Canada and Australia often differ. While vaccination policies and coverage are similar between the two countries, vaccine composition and vaccine effectiveness estimates also differ. Ultimately, there are many differences and confounding variables between the Australian and Canadian influenza seasons across numerous indicators that preclude the use of the Australian influenza season as the sole predictor of the Canadian influenza season. However, the availability of global surveillance data and robust national and sub-national surveillance data can provide lead time and inform within-season resource and capacity planning, as well as mitigation measures, for seasonal influenza epidemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%