An Early Warning System for the on-Line Prediction of Coastal Storm Risk on the Italian Coastline

Abstract

The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil protection agencies in order to prepare themselves and, if needs be, execute the appropriate hazard-reduction measures. In this study we present a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal storm risk on the Emilia-Romagna coastline in Northern Italy. This EWS is run by executing a chain of numerical models (SWAN, ROMS and XBeach) daily, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision making by end-users. The storm impact indicator selected for this site is the Safe Corridor Width (SCW), which is a measure of how much dry beach width is available for safe passage by beach users. A three-day time-series of the predicted SCW is generated daily by the prototype EWS. If the minimum SCW exceeds a certain threshold, a warning is issued to end-users via an automated email service. All available prediction information is also updated daily on-line. Over the one year that the EWS has been operating (June 2011 until June 2012), 13 "code red" and 16 "code orange" warnings have been issued, with the remaining 305 predictions indicating low hazard in terms of the SCW. The reliability of the predictions from the perspective of the end-user has meant that the EWS is currently being expanded to include the entire Emilia-Romagna coastline.

Quick Response Assessment of the Impact of an Extreme Storm Combining Aerial Drone and RTK GPS

“…The survey continued for a week following the passage 5 of the storm. The coastal landscape in Emilia-Romagna is generally comprised of low-lying sandy beaches with limited topographically elevated areas usually in the form of either relict beach ridges or artificial embankments (Armaroli et al, 2012). The shore is comprised of alternating spaces of natural areas with native dunes and intermixed with more prevalent urbanized areas with tourist facilities and coastal protection structures (i.e.…”

“…The exposure to coastal flooding is high, especially in the Ferrara and Ravenna provinces, where some elevations are below Mean Sea Level 15 (MSL), (Perini et al, 2010), and several defense structures (groins, breakwaters, etc.) have been built along the coast in the hope that beach retreat would cease (Armaroli et al, 2012).This problem has been exacerbated over the last few decades by land subsidence, which has been caused mostly by groundwater and gas extraction activities (Teatini et al, 2005;Taramelli et al, 2015). The subsequent vulnerability of local beaches to storm events led to the development of an Early Warning System (EWS), in the framework of the EU FP7 MICORE project (www.micore.eu), with the objective to predict the imminent arrival 20 of a storm as a tool to be used by civil protection agencies and local communities Harley et al, 2012;Harley et al, 2016).…”

“…have been built along the coast in the hope that beach retreat would cease (Armaroli et al, 2012).This problem has been exacerbated over the last few decades by land subsidence, which has been caused mostly by groundwater and gas extraction activities (Teatini et al, 2005;Taramelli et al, 2015). The subsequent vulnerability of local beaches to storm events led to the development of an Early Warning System (EWS), in the framework of the EU FP7 MICORE project (www.micore.eu), with the objective to predict the imminent arrival 20 of a storm as a tool to be used by civil protection agencies and local communities Harley et al, 2012;Harley et al, 2016). The Emilia-Romagna EWS is operational and is run by executing a daily sequence of connected numerical models (COSMO, SWAN, ROMS, and XBeach), comprised of 22 cross-shore profiles, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision-makers and end-users (Harley et al, 2012).…”

“…The subsequent vulnerability of local beaches to storm events led to the development of an Early Warning System (EWS), in the framework of the EU FP7 MICORE project (www.micore.eu), with the objective to predict the imminent arrival 20 of a storm as a tool to be used by civil protection agencies and local communities Harley et al, 2012;Harley et al, 2016). The Emilia-Romagna EWS is operational and is run by executing a daily sequence of connected numerical models (COSMO, SWAN, ROMS, and XBeach), comprised of 22 cross-shore profiles, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision-makers and end-users (Harley et al, 2012). The EWS tool is based on storm impact indicators , focusing on water intrusion and the type of exposed assets, which are described as natural or urbanized 25 beaches .…”

Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

“…The E-R coastal plain can be considered a low-energy environment with significant wave height H sig = 0.4 m (period T peak = 4 s) and a semidiurnal and micro-tidal regime, with an average maximum excursion of 0.7-0.8 m (IDROSER S.p.A., 1996;Harley et al, 2012). Wind waves are characterised by a significant height, with H sig = 3.3 m for 1-year return period (Armaroli et al, 2009), which is most frequently associated with the Bora weather conditions blowing from the east-northeast sectors.…”