An Econometric Analysis of Fuelwood Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Four models are estimated to examine the consumption of fuelwood in selected countries of Sub-Saharan Africa from 1970 to 1990. Using a two-stage least squares estimation technique, we use the models to analyze the effects of income and price on fuelwood demand. Variables included in the models are income, price, and precipitation with a dummy variable based on level of development. The best model yields an income elasticity of 0.39 and a price elasticity of -0.28, indicating that fuelwood is a superior, normal good. Attending to the mounting concerns about fuelwood depletion in Sub-Saharan Africa, we feel the results provide insights for the formulation of effective energy policies. Specifically, policy measures that simultaneously address household income and fuel price are required. Increasing household income, directly with income supplements or indirectly with the provision of energy-efficient cookstoves, has the potential to decrease fuelwood consumption. Similarly, price reforms that force the price of energy to reflect its real economic cost encourage more efficient consumption. IntroductionThe fuelwood crisis gained attention in the 1970s when much of the world was concerned with the crisis of modern fuels. By the late 1970s, growing concern for deforestation and fuelwood scarcity drew attention to the fact that fuelwood is the only obtainable energy source for millions of people. The notion of a fuelwood crisis quickly led to the estimation of fuelwood supply and demand.Conventional estimations of fuelwood demand suggest that, as population expands, fuelwood consumption increases and tree stocks diminish. Such estimation methods became common, leading to the development of what are referred to as the gap theory and the fuelwood orthodoxy. These theories are based on the assumption that general and widespread deforestation is caused by increased household consumption of fuelwood.In the recent past, both the gap theory and the fuelwood orthodoxy dominated almost every attempt to measure the severity of the fuelwood crisis, and the policies needed to alleviate it (Leach and Mearns, 1988). It has become increasingly accepted that both the gap theory and the fuelwood orthodoxy are flawed. More recent research suggests that deforestation and the resulting fuelwood crisis are caused by agricultural expansion-not by fuelwood consumption. The lack of understanding of the fuelwood crisis resulted in past studies overestimating future demands and underestimating the potential fuelwood supply (Benjaminsen, 1993;Cline-Cole et al, 1990;Foley, 1987;Munslow et al, 1988).Although there are numerous demand studies of fuelwood for other parts of the world, there are no large-scale systematic studies for Africa. Using pooled crosssectional, time-series data for eighteen Sub-Saharan countries, we estimate four models in which the determinants of fuelwood demand are based on the theory of

Development and use of an integrated systems model to design technology strategies for energy services in rural developing communities

“…For climate calculations, the fuel harvest nonrenewability factor (fNRB) is taken as 0.73 for wood (CDM, 2014) and 1.0 for LPG. For calculations of rebound, the fuel price elasticity for fuelwood is taken as -0.28 from Table 3.3 (Cuthbert and Dufournaud, 1998) The cost of purchased made charcoal is assumed to be 1/10 th the cost of LPG for lack of better data. Prepared biomass is assumed to be collected biomass prepared into smaller pieces such as pellets or briquettes as needed for specialized cookstoves such as gasifiers.…”