An Econometric Model of Migration Between US Metropolitan Areas

Abstract

We test a model of inter-metropolitan migration using 1965-70 data for 284 metropolitan areas from the 1970 Census of Population . Innovations in model specification permit us to derive estimatable equations for gross in-and out-migration from a point-to-point hypothesis . Measures of economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the growth rate in employment, and the wage rate) are shown to affect migration behaviour both at origins and destinations, as economic theory predicts . Expected effects of past migration on both subsequent in-migration and outmigration are confirmed . In addition, migrants are shown to prefer destination cities that have moderate climates, that are relatively small in size, and that are close to larger cities .The research reported in this paper is part of a larger study of the joint determination of growth in employment in US metropolitan areas and of migration flows between them .

An Equilibrium Model of Gross Migration

“…In the large literature which exists on migration, many authors [e.g., Greenwood (1975a), Alperovich, Bergsman, and Ehemann (1977), daVanzo (1978), Fields (1979l have noted that the results of empirical studies have varied and often have been inconsistent with one another. In this literature, the models being estimated are usually not clearly described but are variants of a disequilibrium model in which, as with our model, household migration preferences can be represented by in-and out-migration functions.…”

Race, Class, and Labor Markets: The White Working Class and Racial Composition of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

“…On the other hand, others have reported a negative effect of a strong local economy on Black-White inequality in employment (Moore, 1992;Freeman, 1991). I therefore include net in-migration-the net change in population as a result of domestic migration in the previous 5 years-as an indicator of long-term local economic conditions (Alperovich, Bergsman, and Ehemann, 1977;Manson and Groop, 1999). I also control for the unemployment rate in 1989 to control for short-term economic conditions.…”

Theories of Migration: A Review

“…Alperovjch et al . () or Burridge and Gordon (). A simple example of this method will suffice for expositional purposes.…”