An Economic Model of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies

Brotherhood, Luiz; Kircher, Philipp; Santos, Cezar; Tertilt, Michèle

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3618840

Cited by 80 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The Center for Disease Control (CDC) provides a range of estimates combined into …ve scenarios that are broadly consistent with the data. 9 In these scenarios, R 0 ranges from 2 to 4 and the average case-fatality ratio ranges from 0:4 to 1:3 percent. 10 We have di¤use priors over these scenarios, so we chose the scenario that allows our model to provide the best …t to the time series for U.S. Covid deaths.…”

Section: Parameter Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining

Eichenbaum

Rebelo

Trabandt

2022

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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Section: Parameter Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining

Eichenbaum

Rebelo

Trabandt

2022

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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“…MEPS can also be used to calculate how much prescription opioids patients take. During 2015-2018, the average yearly opioid usage for non-college prescription patients was about 3,543.75 MME (about 9.84 MME per day) and the average usage for college ones was about 1,785.00 MME (about 10 StreetRx is a website that gathers, organizes, and displays street price data on diverted pharmaceutical controlled substances. The site allows for the anonymous submission of street prices that are paid for specific prescription and illicit drugs.…”

Section: Nonuser's Incomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

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There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, we construct a model where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of opioid use. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. We construct a structural model that matches the estimated Markov chains. We also examine the epidemic's drivers and the impact of medical interventions.

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“…Some recent papers focus on analysis of optimal policy and policy effect in the framework of the SIR model or its variants. They studied the effect of different measures including fiscal policy ( [7], [6], [15]), testing and quarantine ( [23], [4], [18], [2]), intervention policy on multi-aged groups ( [5], [1], [12]), social distancing ( [19], [8], [14]) and lockdown control ( [3], [13], [1]). In previous works, [3] studied the optimal lockdown policy that minimises the value of fatalities and the output costs of the lockdown policy by locking down part of the susceptible and Infectious population, [1] researched the optimal lockdown policies on people of different age groups, and [13] maximise the economic activity level with the burden of the health-care system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Lockdown Policy for Covid-19: A Modelling Study

Fu,

Xiang,

Jin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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As the COVID-19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat against the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our economy and society. Especially when and how to enforce the lockdown measures are the most challenging questions considering both economic and epidemiological costs. In this paper, we extend the classic SIR model to find optimal decision making to balance between economy and people's health during the outbreak of COVID-19. In our model, we intend to solve a two phases optimisation problem: policymakers control the lockdown rate to maximise the overall welfare of the society; people in different health statuses take different decisions on their working hours and consumption to maximise their utility. We develop a novel method to estimate parameters for the model through various additional sources of data. We use the Cournot equilibrium to model people's behaviour and also consider the cost of death in order to leverage between economic and epidemic costs. The analysis of simulation results provides scientific suggestions for policymakers to make critical decisions on when to start the lockdown and how strong it should be during the whole period of the outbreak. Although the model is originally proposed for the COVID-19 pandemic, it can be generalised to address similar problems to control the outbreak of other infectious diseases with the lockdown measures.

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An Economic Model of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies

Cited by 80 publications

References 26 publications

The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining

The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining

Untitled

Optimal Lockdown Policy for Covid-19: A Modelling Study

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