An empirical analysis of government interventions in ECOWAS: evidence from dynamic panel threshold

Abstract

PurposeThe study examines whether the growth effect of government spending is contingent on the level of institutional environment prevalent in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the more refined and more appropriate dynamic threshold panel by Seo and Shin (2016) and made applicable be Seo et al. (2019). The technique models a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity simultaneously in a dynamic threshold panel data framework.FindingsThe results show that there is a threshold effect in the government spending-growth relationship. Specifically, the authors found that the impact of government spending on economic growth is positive and statistically significant only above a certain threshold level of institutional development. Below that threshold, the effect of government spending on growth is insignificant and negative at best. The findings suggest that government spending-growth nexus is contingent on the level of Institutional quality.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies that adopt the linear interaction model which pre-impose a priori conditional restrictions, this study adopts the dynamic threshold panel framework which allows the lagged dependent variable and endogenous covariates.

Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

“…Besides, macroeconomic and fiscal variables, such as public debt are subject to a wide range of shocks that create breaks in the time series (Eller & Urvova, 2012). Second, the government fiscal framework shows evidence of the asymmetric information phenomenon, especially in developing and emerging economies where institutional framework and governance structure are weak, and there is a lack of transparency and a high level of bureaucracy (Hung & Lee, 2010; Olaoye et al, 2021). Third and most notably, available evidence shows that the public debt profile exhibits asymmetric behaviour (Chen, 2014; Chen & Wu, 2018; Combes et al, 2017; Enders & Siklos, 2001).…”