An Empirical Analysis of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Seven European Countries via Principal Component Analysis and the Malliavin-Mancino Method

Abstract

Building upon the empirical studies by Liu (2:57–60, 2010) and Liu and Mancino (2012), we investigate the determinants influencing the term structure of interest rates in seven European countries: Austria, Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. We use two methods, namely principal component analysis (PCA) for covariance matrix estimated by realized volatility estimator and PCA of integrated volatility estimated by Malliavin-Mancino (MM) estimator using Fourier series method proposed by Malliavin and Mancino (6:49–61, 2002; 37: 1983–2010, 2009), to examine spot rates and forward rates derived from zero-coupon bond data. The results of the study confirm that although three factors account for the majority of spot rate variability, a more significant number of factors is essential to capture forward rate dynamics adequately. This research complements the results established by earlier studies, providing a more comprehensive understanding of interest rate dynamics across these European markets.