An Empirical Study of Trade Status and Determinants Between China and "One Belt- One Road" Countries-Based on Trade Gravity Model

Abstract

“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach

“…In fact, notice that zeroes could be interpreted as flows too small to report, in which case it would be legitimate to drop them from estimation, or they could be seen as generated from meaningful selection, in which case OLS estimation without accounting for selection would be biased (Anderson, 2011). One solution to deal with the zeroes without automatically discarding them could be to estimate the gravity model in a multiplicative form and to apply the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator; this approach has been advocated for instance in Santos Tenreyro (2006, 2011) and Shang (2020); in the context of international trade data and has been applied for modelling migration flows in Beine and Parsons (2015).…”